| 辽宁沿海经济带能源消费碳排放与区域经济增长脱钩分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 盖美,曹桂艳,田成诗,柯丽娜.辽宁沿海经济带能源消费碳排放与区域经济增长脱钩分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(6):1267-1277. |
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| 作者姓名： | 盖美 曹桂艳 田成诗 柯丽娜 |
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| 作者单位： | 辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心, 大连116029;辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心, 大连116029;东北财经大学统计学院, 大连116025;辽宁师范大学海洋城市与环境学院, 大连116029 |
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| 基金项目： | 辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目：“辽宁沿海经济带水资源与经济可持续发展研究”（编号：ZJ2013024） |
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| 摘 要： | 选取辽宁沿海经济带为研究对象,采用Tapio提出的弹性分析方法,探讨辽宁沿海经济带能源碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系及演变趋势。然后,运用随机前沿分析方法(SFA)对碳排放效率进行测度,并构建Tobit多元线性回归模型,对碳排放效率的影响因素进行详细分析。研究表明:①2000-2012年,辽宁沿海经济带整体的脱钩关系从扩张性负脱钩转变为弱脱钩,碳排放总量分阶段性呈上升趋势,而GDP呈现稳步上升趋势;2000-2006年锦州、营口、盘锦指向扩张性负脱钩,大连呈现扩张连接,丹东和葫芦岛指向弱脱钩,2006-2012年所有地区后期较前期脱钩更为显著,脱钩程度区域差异缩少;②除锦州外其余五个城市的碳排放效率变动趋势相似,2000-2012年地区差异逐渐缩小,且丹东、营口、盘锦、葫芦岛四市历年的碳排放效率均低于辽宁沿海经济带的整体水平。其中,锦州历年的碳排放效率最高,但是增长幅度很小,盘锦、葫芦岛的碳排放效率虽然很低,但有很大的提升空间;③人均GDP对碳排放效率的提升起促进作用,能源消费结构、能源消费强度、产业结构及政府干预与碳排放效率呈显著负相关,即对碳排放效率的提升起抑制作用。最后,对辽宁沿海经济带的低碳经济发展提出了建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 能源碳排放 经济增长 脱钩 SFA Tobit模型 辽宁沿海经济带 |
| 修稿时间： | 3/6/2014 12:00:00 AM |
Decoupling Analysis of Energy Carbon Emissions and Regional Economic Growth in the Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt |
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| GAI Mei,CAO Guiyan,TIAN Chengshi and KE Lina.Decoupling Analysis of Energy Carbon Emissions and Regional Economic Growth in the Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt[J].Resources Science,2014,36(6):1267-1277. |
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| Authors: | GAI Mei CAO Guiyan TIAN Chengshi and KE Lina |
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| Institution: | Marine Economy and Sustainable Development Research Center, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China;Marine Economy and Sustainable Development Research Center, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China;Statistics College, Dong Bei University of Finance & Economic, Dalian 116025, China;Scholl of Urban and Environment, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China |
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| Abstract: | Here we selected the Liaoning coastal economic belt as our study area and used the period of time scale elastic analysis method to reflect energy decoupling relationships. Using the stochastic frontier analysis method (SFA) we then measured the efficiency of carbon emissions, constructed a Tobit multivariate linear regression model, and analyzed carbon emission efficiency factors in detail. We found that from 2000-2012, the coastal economic zone as a whole moved from expansive negative decoupling into strong decoupling. Total carbon emission stage showed an increasing trend while GDP showed a steady upward trend. From 2000-2006, Dalian pointed to expanded connections, Dandong and Huludao pointed to a weak decoupling state, and others were expansionary negative decoupling. During 2006-2012, all regions achieved significant decoupling in the later period, and the regional gap of decoupling degree narrowed. Besides Jinzhou, carbon emission efficiency change trends for the other five cities were similar; the regional difference has become increasingly smaller. Carbon emission efficiency over the years in Jinzhou was highest, but the growth rate was small. While the carbon emission efficiency of Panjin and Huludao were very low, there is much room for improvement. GDP per capita played a significant role in improving carbon emission efficiency. The structure of energy consumption, energy consumption intensity, the structure of industry and government intervention were negatively correlated with carbon emission efficiency. We conclude by providing feasibility suggestions for the low carbon economic development of the Liaoning coastal economic belt. |
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| Keywords: | decoupling energy carbon emission economic growth SFA Tobit model Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt |
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