| 能源节约偏向型技术进步、不同技术来源与节能减排 |
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| 引用本文： | 钱娟.能源节约偏向型技术进步、不同技术来源与节能减排[J].科研管理,2006,41(1):223-233. |
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| 作者姓名： | 钱娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆大学经济与管理学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐830046 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文主要考察能源节约偏向型技术进步对中国工业及35个行业能耗和碳排放的影响效应,并进一步实证分析其是否存在门槛效应,是否已跨越门槛。研究发现：中国工业技术进步整体偏向劳动节约型,能源、资本使用型共存;能源消耗、碳排放与能源节约偏向型技术进步之间呈“倒U型”,且均存在单一门槛,门槛值分别大于工业整体能源增强型技术进步指数均值0.5079,当前中国工业能源节约偏向型技术进步尚处于“倒U型”曲线左侧,边际效用弹性加剧了能源消耗;能源消费结构与能源消耗、碳排放之间均呈显著负相关但影响效应较小,工业结构性节能减排空间尚未得到有效释放。
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| 收稿时间： | 2018-01-29 |
The threshold effect of energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress on industrial energy saving and emission reduction |
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| Qian Juan.The threshold effect of energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress on industrial energy saving and emission reduction[J].Science Research Management,2006,41(1):223-233. |
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| Authors: | Qian Juan |
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| Institution: | School of Economics and Management, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China |
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| Abstract: | Since the reform and development, China′s economy has grown rapidly and has developed into the second largest economy in the world. However, similar to the course of development of most developing countries, the rapid economic growth is more dependent on the large consumption of domestic energy resources. In year of 2018, China′s GDP accounted for about 16% of the world′s GDP, but energy consumption accounted for about 23% of the world′s total energy consumption. The coal-based energy consumption structure, low energy efficiency, energy consumption and carbon emission peaks have not yet come, etc., which has caused increasing pressure on energy saving and emission reduction and ecological environmental protection. Therefore, in the context of the "dual control" of energy and the increasingly tight environment and resources, exploring the mechanism and effect of energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress on industrial energy conservation and emission reduction is of great significance to change the mode of economic growth driven , and to realize high-quality and green development. This paper mainly examines the impact of energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress on energy consumption and emission reduction from two perspectives of energy consumption and CO2 emissions, and further validates whether energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress has a threshold effect through threshold models, then judges the current stage of China′s industrial energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress.First of all, on the basis of exploring the effect mechanism of energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress on energy saving and emission reduction, we propose the hypothesis of this paper. Hypothesis 1: The impact of energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress on energy consumption and CO2 emissions is non-linear. Hypothesis 2: The impact of energy-saving bias-oriented technological on energy consumption and CO2 emissions also depends on the marginal utility elasticity. When it is greater than 1, marginal utility elasticity prefers current consumption, which promotes energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress to increase energy consumption and CO2 emissions, and intensifies the "energy rebound effect" and "carbon emission effect".Secondly, we estimate the energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress in China′s industry. The study found that from 1995 to 2015, China′s industrial technological progress was generally biased towards energy, capital using, and labor-saving. There are 65% of industrial industries have improved their energy-enhancing technological progress, and 54% of industrial industries have improved their labor-enhancing technological progress, and 42% of industrial industries have improved their capital-enhancing technological progress, while the overall capital utilization efficiency has declined. From the perspective of the industry′s energy-enhanced technological progress index, there are 8 industries energy-enhanced technology progress index above 0.8, 15 industries energy-enhanced technology progress index above 0.5, and 3 industries energy-enhanced technology progress index below 0.3.Thirdly, we explore the impact of energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress on industrial energy conservation and emission reduction. In the model, the square term of the energy-enhanced technological progress index , the cross-term of the energy-enhanced technological progress index and the marginal utility elasticity are introduced. The research results show that there is an inverted "U-shaped" curve relationship between the energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress and energy consumption and CO2 emissions. On the left side of the inverted “U-shaped” curve, the level of energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress is low, and the energy saving effect and CO2 emission reduction effect caused by it are less than the energy consumption and CO2 emissions increase effect caused by the additional demand required for economic growth, and the marginal utility elasticity has exacerbated the "energy rebound effect", so energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress will promote energy consumption and CO2 emissions.When crossing the threshold and reaching the right side of the inverted "U-shaped" curve, the level of energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress is relatively high, and the energy saving effect and CO2 reduction effect caused by it will be greater than the energy consumption and CO2 emissions increase effect caused by additional demand ,and the "energy rebound effect", at this time weakened or even failed, so energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress will inhibit energy consumption and CO2 emissions.The impact of energy prices on energy conservation and emission reduction is significantly positively correlated, but the effect is small. The energy consumption structure has a significant positive effect on energy conservation and emission reduction. However, due to the slow progress of China′s energy consumption structure adjustment, the structural energy conservation and emission reduction potential brought by the energy consumption structure has not yet been fully released.Fourthly, it is further verified whether the energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress and the energy consumption and CO2 emissions present an "inverted U-shaped" curve relationship, and whether it has a threshold effect. The research results show that there is a single threshold between energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress and energy consumption and CO2 emissions, The thresholds are 0.754 and 0.544, respectively, and this further validates the "inverted U-shaped" curve relationship between energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress and energy consumption and CO2 emissions.At the same time, China ′s overall industrial energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress is still basically on the left side of the “inverted U-shaped” curve, at the stage of promoting energy consumption and CO2 emissions. At the end of this paper, we propose the policy implications of this article. First, the current energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress of China′s industry is still at the left of the "inverted U-shaped" curve. With the improvement of energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress, energy consumption and CO2 emissions will still be promoted. It is necessary to accelerate the development and promotion of energy-saving bias-oriented technological progress, and vigorously promote the progress of green technology. Second, the marginal utility elasticity has aggravated the "energy rebound effect". It is necessary to increase the supply and demand for low-carbon green consumer products, maintain a reasonable range of marginal utility elasticity, and slow down the aggravating effect. Third, the current industrial energy consumption structure in China has a significant positive effect on energy conservation and emission reduction, but the effect is small. It is necessary to strengthen the "dual control" of industrial energy consumption, increase the use of clean energy, reduce the proportion of coal consumption, and fully release the structural energy saving and emission reduction effect of energy consumption structure adjustment. |
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