| 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对体育产业影响的预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王雅伦,刘洋,吴珏.新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对体育产业影响的预测研究[J].成都体育学院学报,2020(2):62-69. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王雅伦 刘洋 吴珏 |
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| 作者单位： | 杭州师范大学体育文化研究中心;阿里巴巴本地生活服务公司;浙江省体育产业联合会 |
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| 摘 要： | 2020年初,新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情在我国迅速扩散,对我国民生、经济产生了较大的影响。研究通过与"非典"疫情期间宏观经济、产业发展及其后行业发展走向进行对比,结合当前我国经济现状、中观体育产业发展状况以及微观的体育产业经营实体调研情况,分析预测新冠肺炎疫情对于体育产业的影响,判断疫情之后的体育产业的发展变化。研究发现,短期来看,体育产业特别是体育服务业会受到较大冲击,经营主体普遍面临着在第一季度、上半年营收预期同比较大幅度减少;疫情结束后则可能存在着体育需求和消费的集中爆发刺激体育服务业的行业短期回弹,疫情爆发的时长和政府的对冲政策力度会左右短期影响的程度。中长期看,体育产业在此次事件后高质量发展的基本面不会变,整个行业优化、重组速度会加快,固有的体育行业格局会发生变化,体育经营实体的转型、升级步伐会提升,经营、治理方式的数字化、智能化程度会得到全面提升,体育服务、产品的创新会加速。
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| 关 键 词： | 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情 “非典”疫情 体育产业 体育服务业 |
Predictive Study on COVID-19 Effects of Sports Industry |
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| WANG Yalun,LIU Yang,WU Jue.Predictive Study on COVID-19 Effects of Sports Industry[J].Journal of Chengdu Physical Education Institute,2020(2):62-69. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yalun LIU Yang WU Jue |
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| Institution: | (Hangzhou Normal University Sports Culture Research Cen-ter,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310036;Local Livelihood Corporate of Alibaba Group,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310063;Zhejiang Sports Industry Federation,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310003) |
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| Abstract: | In the spring of2020,COVID-19 has being spread in China with a high speed,which made a dramatic negative influence on livelihood and economy in China.By comparing the situation during SARS in 2003,the study,using questionnaires and interviews on part of chairmen of sports industry,predicted that COVID-19 wouldhave more profoundnegative influence on sports industry,especially,economy with respect to sports service than SARS.In the short term,the revenue of sports companies is predicted to decline greatly in the first quarter and the half year of 2020.The reasons are postponing time back to work after lunar new year,decline of the rate of employees backing to work,suspendingin manufactures and sports service,restricts on exporting of OEM sports products and so on.Problems in cash flow would make a dramatic influence for sports service concerning companies.Right after the control of COVID-19,potential explosive increase in sports need and sports consumption would promote the recovery of sports industry.The duration of conoavirus explosion and bailout policies would affect the degree of the influence.In the long term,high quality development-trend of sports industry won’t be changed,optimization and reorganization would be speed up and traditional composition would be changed in sports industry field.As for sports companies,the pace of upgrade and reconstruction,digital management,and innovation on sports products and service would be promoted. |
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| Keywords: | COVID-19 SARS Sports Industry Economy of Sports Service |
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