| 基于贝叶斯网络的网络舆情危机节点诊断研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周昕,邱长波,李瑞.基于贝叶斯网络的网络舆情危机节点诊断研究[J].现代情报,2018,38(11):59-65. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周昕 邱长波 李瑞 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林大学管理学院, 吉林 长春 130025 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目面上项目"大数据环境下网络舆情信息的语义识别与危机响应研究"（项目编号：71473101）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]研究大数据网络环境发展新形势下，通过概率分析判断导致危机爆发的关键环节，为网络舆情危机管理决策提供依据。方法]使用贝叶斯模型作为分析工具，探究网络舆情危机关键节点诊断的流程和机理。建立网络舆情危机分类匹配模型和关键节点诊断模型。结果]建立60个网络舆情危机事件训练组得出模型条件概率表，3个测试组样本经实证诊断结果与事实相符。局限]贝叶斯网络结构的构建需要进一步通过定量分析进行优化。结论]对网络舆情危机进行分型，并精确地从复杂变量中诊断出对危机态势最具影响的关键节点。
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| 关 键 词： | 舆情危机 贝叶斯网络 节点诊断 |
Study on Crisis Diagnosis of Network Public Opinion Based on Bayesian Network |
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| Authors: | Zhou Xin Qiu Changbo Li Rui |
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| Institution: | School of Management, Jilin University, Changchun 130022, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective]Studied the diagnosis procedure of network public opinion crisis control in the new tendency of development of big data network environment.Methods]Combined the Bayesian network theory with the network public opinion crisis diagnosis,and deeply analyzed the procedure and mechanism of big datamation multimedia network crisis diagnosis.Results]Analyzed the key variables,sorted relationship network structure,and established a big data multimedia network public opinion crisis classification matching module and a key node diagnosis module.Limitations]The establishment of the Bayesian network structure needed to be further optimized by quantitative analysis.Conclusions]Identified the types of network public opinion crisis,and accurately diagnosed the key nodes with the most significant influence on the crisis tendency among complicated variables. |
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| Keywords: | public opinion crisis bayesian network node diagnosis |
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