| 考虑电子口碑累积效果的手机APP BASS扩散过程的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱侯,万芳彬,张丽.考虑电子口碑累积效果的手机APP BASS扩散过程的研究[J].现代情报,2018,38(1):108-114. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱侯 万芳彬 张丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 中山大学资讯管理学院, 广东 广州 510006 |
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| 基金项目： | 中山大学人文社会科学青年教师桐山基金项目"社会化媒体用户隐私披露行为的社会计算研究"（项目编号：20000-54500053）；广东省技术交易体系与科技服务网络建设项目"面向主题的中文语料库构建方法与技术"（项目编号：2015-2000-42020008）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 随着移动互联网的飞速发展和智能手机的普及，手机APP作为智能手机接入移动互联网最重要的入口，与人们的生活息息相关。探究移动APP的推广及扩散机理，对企业制定IT营销及开发策略具有重要的意义。本文在经典BASS模型的基础上，引入了电子口碑这一影响因素，利用多智能体模拟技术，借助建模软件AnyLogic，建立了手机APP在移动互联网中的仿真扩散模型。对比实际案例中手机APP的扩散情况，本文验证了模型的有效性。由于电子口碑的累积效果，APP的扩散过程与传统产品的扩散过程明显不同，不同的电子口碑累积效果，将导致APP不同的扩散趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | BASS模型 手机APP扩散 电子口碑 多智能体模拟 |
A Study of Diffusion Process of Mobile APP Based on BASS Model Considering the Cumulative Effect of Electronic Word of Mouth |
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| Authors: | Zhu Hou Wan Fangbin Zhang Li |
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| Institution: | School of Information Management, SunYat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China |
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| Abstract: | With the rapid development of mobile internet and the popularity of smart phones,mobile APP,the most important access to mobile Internet of smart phones,is more and more inseparable from people's lives.The research on the mechanism of diffusion and spreading of mobile APPs had important significance for enterprises to formalate IT marketing and developing strategies.Based on the classic BASS model,this paper introduced a new influencing factor,electronic word of mouth,into the model.Multi-agent simulation technology was utilized to model the diffusion of mobile APPs with the help of AnyLogic,a powerful modeling software.After comparing the simulation results with real cases,the paper validated the effectiveness of this model.There were obvious differences between the diffusion process of mobile APPs and traditional products.The cumulative effect of different kinds of electronic word of mouth will lead to different diffusion results of mobile APPs. |
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| Keywords: | BASS model diffusion of mobile APP electronic word of Mouth multi-agent simulation |
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