| 网络舆情演化机理多维建模与仿真研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 兰月新,夏一雪,刘冰月,张鹏,连芷萱.网络舆情演化机理多维建模与仿真研究[J].现代情报,2017,37(8):57-64. |
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| 作者姓名： | 兰月新 夏一雪 刘冰月 张鹏 连芷萱 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国人民武装警察部队学院, 河北 廊坊 065000;2. 天津交通职业学院, 天津 300132 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北省社会科学基金项目“面向突发事件的政务微媒体影响力提升策略研究”（项目编号：HB17XW025）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的/意义]研究网络舆情演化的多维度模型，从更高视角解读网络舆情传播规律，丰富和完善网络舆情传播理论。方法/过程]定量分析网络舆情趋势预测中信息增长率的变化问题，构建以增长率和时间为自变量，信息累计数量为因变量的多维函数模型，并通过MATLAB仿真研究各个参数对网络舆情传播的影响以及网络舆情传播路径分析，然后通过“成都女司机”微博数据验证了模型的可行性，更加直观地诠释了高维模型研究网络舆情演化机理的优势。结论/结果]经过理论建模和实证分析得出，将logistic模型拓展到高维研究网络舆情演化机理是可行的，并且多维度模型很好地解释了网络舆情数据出现多个“峰值”现象，而网络舆情统计数据的实质是高维度模型曲线在时间轴的投影。
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| 关 键 词： | 网络舆情 Logistic模型 演化机理 仿真分析 实证分析 大数据 |
Research on Multidimensional Modeling and Simulation of Network Public Opinion Evolution |
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| Authors: | Lan Yuexin Xia Yixue Liu Bingyue Zhang Peng Lian Zhixuan |
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| Institution: | 1. The Chinese People's Armed Police Force Academy, Langfang 065000, China;2. Transportation Vocational College, Tianjin 300110, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper studied the multidimensional model of network public opinion evolution,interpreted the law of network public opinion from a higher angle,and enriched the theory of network public opinion communication. Quantitative studied the change of information growth rate during network public opinion trends forecast,constructed a multidimensional function model that the rate of growth and time were the independent variables,and the cumulative number of information was the dependent variable. Then studied the effect of various parameters on the network public opinion dissemination and its path through MATLAB simulation,verified the feasibility of the model by analysis of the "Chengdu female driver" microblog data,and illustrated the advantages of the high dimensional model to study the mechanism of network public opinion. Through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis,it was feasible to extend the Logistic model to higher dimensional research of network public opinion evolution mechanism. The multidimensional model explained the phenomenon of appearing more "peak" in network public opinion data,and the essence of network public opinion statistics was the projection of the high dimensional model curve in the time axis. |
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| Keywords: | network public opinion logistic model evolution mechanism simulation analysis empirical analysis big data |
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