| 关于开放经济条件下货币危机预警系统的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨荣海.关于开放经济条件下货币危机预警系统的探讨[J].昆明大学学报,2007,18(3):14-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨荣海 |
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| 作者单位： | 昆明大学,经济系,云南,昆明,650118 |
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| 摘 要： | 一场货币危机的爆发,往往会造成国民经济的严重衰退,同时给政府带来巨额的预算支出,甚至可能引起政局的动荡,其代价之惨重无须赘述。货币危机总是由某种经济状态先行失衡而引发的,如何避免货币危机,立足点应该是对先行爆发的货币危机进行预警,这对于有效地防范金融危机的爆发具有实际意义。文章以货币危机预警理论的KLR模型作为基础,综合运用主观概率法,对开放经济条件下货币危机预警系统的建立提出了建议,以期对相关研究做出一定程度上的理论参考,力求为中国的金融理论建设做出一点贡献。
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| 关 键 词： | 开放经济 货币危机 预警 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-2056（2007）02-0014-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-05-09 |
The Early-Warning Model of the Currency Crisis on the Premise of the Open Economy |
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| YANG Rong-hai.The Early-Warning Model of the Currency Crisis on the Premise of the Open Economy[J].Journal of Kunming University,2007,18(3):14-18. |
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| Authors: | YANG Rong-hai |
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| Institution: | Economic Department of Kunming University, 650118, Kunming, Yunnan, China |
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| Abstract: | With the outburst of the currency crisis,it will usually bring about the serious decline of the national economy,increase the terrible financial pressure for the government at the same time,even may cause a turbulent political situation,and the result is very fearful.The currency crisis always goes with a certain economic unbalance state.The foothold,namely how to avoid the currency crisis,is to warn the currency crisis before it breaks out,so we can take precautions against the financial crisis effectively.In this article,on the basis of the KLR model,we can make use of the subjective probability method,and put forward some suggestions about the early-warning model of the currency crisis,aiming at making a relevant theory study,and trying our best to make contributions to the financial theory construction of China. |
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| Keywords: | currency crisis the early-warning model |
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