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| 基于IPCC情景下新疆地区未来气候变化的预估 | |
| 引用本文： | 李兰海,白磊,姚亚楠,杨青.基于IPCC情景下新疆地区未来气候变化的预估[J].资源科学,2012,34(4):602-612. |
| 作者姓名： | 李兰海 白磊 姚亚楠 杨青 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011／中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆水循环与水利用自治区重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011 2. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011／中国科学院研究生院,北京100049／中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆水循环与水利用自治区重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011 3. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,乌鲁木齐,830002 |
| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目:"气候变化对新疆融雪径流过程及水资源的影响"(编号:KZCX2-YW-334);国家重点基础研究发展计划:"气候变化对西北干旱区水循环影响机理与水资源安全研究"(编号:2010CB951001). |
| 摘 要： | 新疆地区地形复杂且地面观测站点分布稀疏,降低了以往基于中国地区的气候变化预估效果。在降尺度方法中,偏差校正方法相对于区域气候模式和统计降尺度方法,对于区域气候变化预估更加实用和经济。本文采用Delta方法对24个GCMs模型月数据降尺度至0.5°水平分辨率,分析A1B、A2和B1三个情景下新疆未来气候变化格局。结果表明到2099年三个情景下年平均气温分别为10.0℃、11.1℃和8.5℃,年降水量有显著的增加趋势。在中天山地区、伊犁河流域、天山南坡和塔里木河下游地区的带状区域增温幅度小于北疆准噶尔盆地、帕米尔高原和昆仑山北坡。对于年降水量,在南疆西部相对于参考时期呈现微弱的减少趋势,在昌吉地区、吐鲁番地区、哈密地区和昆仑山北坡-阿尔金山一带呈现显著性的增长趋势。 |
| 关 键 词： | 降尺度 Delta方法 插值 区域气候模式 气温 降水 |
| 修稿时间： | 3/2/2012 12:00:00 AM |
Projection of Climate Change in Xinjiang under IPCC SRES |
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| LI Lanhai,BAI Lei,YAO Yanan and YANG Qing.Projection of Climate Change in Xinjiang under IPCC SRES[J].Resources Science,2012,34(4):602-612. | |
| Authors: | LI Lanhai BAI Lei YAO Yanan and YANG Qing |
| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Xinjiang Key Lab of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Xinjiang Key Lab of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Xinjiang Key Lab of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;Institute of Desert and Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China |
| Abstract: | With global climate change,the annual temperature shows a significantly increasing trend in China,especially in Xinjiang.However,despite the rising temperature,snow cover on both Tianshan Mountains and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has been showing slightly ascending trend.It means that climate change has great uncertainty in spacial distribution.The Global Climate Model(GCM)is an efficient and direct method to assess the process of global climate change under variable forces,especially the human activity.To improve the resolution of GCM,there are three main downscaling methods,i.e.Dynamic Downscaling Method,Offset Correction Method and Statistical Downscaling Method.Dynamic Downscaling Method is to calculate the output of GCMs again by using the Regional Climate Model or Numerical Weather Prediction Model.Statistical Downscaling Method is a bit difficult to directly gain the raster outputs in terms of coping with each station’s data.Offset Correction Method is in the lead on accuracy and efficiency,especially on regional scale research.As one of the Offset Correction methods,Delta method was applied to downscale the horizontal resolution of 24 GCMs’monthly outputs to 0.5 degree in this study and to analyze Xinjiang’s future climate change pattern under three scenarios ie.A1B,A2 and B1.The results show that:1)By the end of the 21st century,the annual mean temperature under the above three scenarios would be 10.0℃,11.1℃and 8.5℃respectively and the annual precipitation will have prominent increase tendency;2)Temperatures in the middle Tianshan Mountains,the Ili River watershed,the southern slope of Tinahsan Mountains and the stripe region in the lower reaches of Tarim river increase slower than those in Junggar Basin,Pamirs and northern slope of Kunlun Mountains;3)The annual precipitation shows slightly decreasing trend in the west of southern Xinjiang,but shows significantly increasing trend in Changji,Turpan,Hami and northern Kunlun-Altun Mountains. |
| Keywords: | Downscaling Delta method Interpolation Regional Climate Model Temperature Precipitation |
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