| 基于贝叶斯网络的暴雨-地质、暴雨-洪涝灾害链推理模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 帅敏,郭海湘,刘晓,王德运,陈卫明.基于贝叶斯网络的暴雨-地质、暴雨-洪涝灾害链推理模型[J].科技管理研究,2021,41(4):191-197. |
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| 作者姓名： | 帅敏 郭海湘 刘晓 王德运 陈卫明 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学(武汉)经济与管理学院;中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,湖北武汉430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目“基于数据驱动的滑坡地质灾害预测及其应急决策研究-以长江经济带三峡库区为例”(71874165) 国家自然科学基金项目“灾害多级联动模式下城市群综合承灾能力的评价与仿真研究”(71573237)教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助项目“大数据背景下突发公共事件的关联关系挖掘与预测”(15YJA630019) 教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助项目“应急救援队伍优化调配与合作救援仿真研究”（20JHQ094）湖北省科学技术厅科研软科学项目“三峡库区滑坡地质灾害防治措施调配及防治工程综合经济效益评估”（2019ADC154） |
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| 摘 要： | 为解决现有的山区暴雨-地质、市区暴雨-洪涝灾害模型在链式反应推理和精度上的不足,基于贝叶斯网络理论分析暴雨灾害演化规律,构建灾害链推理模型;根据国内暴雨灾害历史数据和相关文献总结选取暴雨灾害节点变量,构建暴雨灾害链拓扑结构,并应用期望最大化算法求得暴雨灾害条件概率,基于因果推理实现对暴雨引发的次生灾害和基础设施损毁等级的预测。最后以湖南省宁远县2017年6月22日至7月1日间因暴雨导致的滑坡洪灾为例,运用上述暴雨-地质、暴雨-洪涝灾害链推理模型进行实例验证,预测结果与实际情况吻合较好,Brier检验的B值小于0.6,结果表明该灾害链推理模型具有可行性。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨-洪涝 暴雨-地质 灾害链 贝叶斯网络 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/3/29 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021/2/18 0:00:00 |
inference model of the Rainstorm-Geology and Rainstorm- Flood Disaster Chain Based on Bayesian Network |
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| Shuai Min,Guo Haixiang,Liu Xiao,Wang Deyun,Chen Weiming.inference model of the Rainstorm-Geology and Rainstorm- Flood Disaster Chain Based on Bayesian Network[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2021,41(4):191-197. |
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| Authors: | Shuai Min Guo Haixiang Liu Xiao Wang Deyun Chen Weiming |
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| Institution: | (School of Eeonomics and Management,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China;School of Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to solve the deficiencies of the chain reaction reasoning and accuracy in the existing mountainous storm-geology, urban storm-flood disaster models, this paper analyzes its evolutional process and combines the Bayesian complex network theory to construct a disaster chain reasoning model. Through domestic disaster historical data and related literature, disaster nodes and statuses are enriched and then construct a disaster chain topology based on that. The conditional probability table was obtained by applying the EM algorithm. Using the causal reasoning, the secondary disasters and infrastructure damage levels was predicted finally and the data on landslide flood disaster in Ningyuan County, Hunan Province was tested as a example. The results show that the prediction results are in good agreement with the actual situation of the example. The Brier test B value is less than 0.6. The constructed storm-geology, storm-flood disaster chain reasoning model is feasible, and it can provide timely reference for the National Disaster Reduction Center of China to mitigate disaster. |
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| Keywords: | rainstorm -geology rainstorm -flood disaster chain Bayesian network |
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