| 基于系统动力学的技术生命周期预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王丽芳,蒋国瑞,黄梯云.基于系统动力学的技术生命周期预测[J].未来与发展,2009,30(9):92-94. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王丽芳 蒋国瑞 黄梯云 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京,100124
2. 北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京,100124;哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150001 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目(70639002):奥运科技产业化及基于奥运市场规则的国际化发展研究 |
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| 摘 要： | 传统的生命周期曲线仅从单一指标采分析和预测技术发展趋势，忽略了技术发展的系统性。本文提出基于系统动力学的预测法，结合社会、经济环境等影响因素，通过VensimPLE软件进行仿真试验，预测近20年来燃料电池汽车技术生命周期发展趋势．在技术生命周期理论的研究上作了拓展。
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| 关 键 词： | 生命周期曲线 预测 系统动力学 技术 |
The Technology Life Cycle Forecasting based on System Dynamics |
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| WANG Li-fang,JIANG Guo-rui,HUANG Ti-yun.The Technology Life Cycle Forecasting based on System Dynamics[J].Future and Development,2009,30(9):92-94. |
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| Authors: | WANG Li-fang JIANG Guo-rui HUANG Ti-yun |
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| Institution: | WANG Li-fang, JIANG Guo-rui, HUANG Ti-yun (1. Economics and Management School, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124,China 2. School of Management Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin Heilongjiang 150001,China) |
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| Abstract: | Only a single factor has been concluded in Traditional life-cycle curve to analyze and forecast technology development trend, ignores the systemic. In this paper, the prediction based on the System Dynamics, combined with the social, economic and environmental factors, through the simulation software Vensim PLE test, the forecast over the past 20 years fuel cell vehicle technology development trend of the life cycle, the study of technology life cycle theory was made on expansion. |
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| Keywords: | Life-cycle Curve Forecast System Dynamics Technology |
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