| 1960-2014年东北地区大雨和暴雨事件的变化特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐宝琪,延军平,王璐璐,刘永林.1960-2014年东北地区大雨和暴雨事件的变化特征[J].资源科学,2015,37(12):2514-2523. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐宝琪 延军平 王璐璐 刘永林 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安 710119 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41171090）;国家社会科学基金项目（14AZD094） |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于东北地区87个气象站点1960-2014年逐日降水资料,运用趋势分析法、IDW空间插值法、Morlet小波分析及斯尔皮曼相关分析等方法,分析了近55a东北地区降水事件的时空变化特征。结果表明：近55a,东北地区年降水日数和强度存在明显的年代际变化,年降水日数总体呈极显著减少趋势,自东南向西北呈多-少-多的分布格局,年降水强度呈不明显的增加趋势,由南向北不断减小。大雨和暴雨降水日数均呈减少趋势,在空间上自东南向西北逐渐递减,且随着降水等级的提高,高值中心逐步向辽东南地区移动;强降水强度由南向北逐渐递减,大雨强度在各地差异不大,暴雨强度的差异较为明显。大雨和暴雨不是东北地区的主要降水方式,但对年降水量的贡献较大;降水量与强降水事件之间存在着显著的正相关关系,其中大雨降水量和日数的减少对研究区降水量的响应最显著,贡献率最大。大雨和暴雨日数变化的主周期分别为22a、5a,降水强度主周期均为28a。该研究有利于全面认识东北地区极端降雨天气,对区域农业发展等具有重要意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 大雨事件 暴雨事件 降水日数 降水量 降水强度 时空变化 东北地区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-05-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-09-14 |
Changes of precipitation events in Northeast China from 1960 to 2014 |
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| TANG Baoqi,YAN Junping,WANG Lulu,LIU Yonglin.Changes of precipitation events in Northeast China from 1960 to 2014[J].Resources Science,2015,37(12):2514-2523. |
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| Authors: | TANG Baoqi YAN Junping WANG Lulu LIU Yonglin |
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| Institution: | College of Tourism and Environmental,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,China |
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| Abstract: | Based on meteorological data from 87 stations in Northeast China from 1960 to 2014,we used trend analysis,IDW spatial interpolation methods,Morlet wavelet analysis and Spearman correlation analysis to analyze temporal and spatial variation in precipitation events in Northeast China. We found that in the last 55 years,annual precipitation days and precipitation intensity showed an obvious decadal oscillation. Annual precipitation days has followed a significantly decreasing trend,and from southeast to northwest shows a more-less-more distribution pattern. Annual precipitation intensity decreased gradually from south to north. Heavy and extreme rainfall days both decreased,and this trend gradually decreases from southeast to northwest. With levels of precipitation increasing,high centers have moved to southeast Liaoning. The intensity of extreme rainfall gradually decreased from south to north. There were little differences in heavy rainfall intensity among various areas,while extreme rainfall strength presented a contrasting tendency. Heavy and extreme rainfall were not the main precipitation patterns in northeast China,but were the main contributors to the annual precipitation pattern. There is a significant positive correlation between annual precipitation and strong precipitation events,of which the decrease in heavy rain and rain days had the most significant response to annual precipitation. Heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall days had the major precipitation cycles of 22 years and 5 years respectively,while the precipitation intensity of different grades had the same period of 28 years. The results will facilitate comprehensive understanding of the extreme rainfall events in Northern China, and this is significantly important for regional agriculture developement as well. |
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| Keywords: | Heavy and extreme rainfall precipitation days precipitation precipitation intensity variation characteristics Northeast China |
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