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| 基于LMDI模型的金砖五国二氧化碳排放成本及其影响因素比较研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 梁大鹏,刘天森,李一军.基于LMDI模型的金砖五国二氧化碳排放成本及其影响因素比较研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(12):2319-2329. |
| 作者姓名： | 梁大鹏 刘天森 李一军 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,哈尔滨 150001 2. 国家自然科学基金委员会管理科学部,北京 100085 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（71273075）;教育部人文社科基金项目（09YJC790061） |
| 摘 要： | 作为世界重要的工业经济体,金砖五国温室气体排放对区域环境质量具有决定性影响,而现有文献对五国碳排放的比较研究不足。本文运用LMDI模型,探究1992-2012年影响五国CO2排放成本的主要因素,并比较分析了五国关键影响因素存在差异的原因。主要结论为：①单位CO2排放成本和人均GDP增长显著提高了五国CO2排放成本;能源强度下降有助于降低俄罗斯、南非、中国、印度CO2排放成本;②油气消费量上升提高了巴西和南非CO2排放成本;煤炭和石油消费量下降有助于降低俄罗斯CO2排放成本;而大规模的化石能源消费对提高中国和印度CO2排放成本的作用更明显;③综合对五国CO2排放成本关键影响因素的分析,提升减排技术水平、完善工业减排机制、优化能源结构是降低单位CO2排放成本、CO2排放量和能源强度的重要途径,有助于控制CO2排放成本。 |
| 关 键 词： | CO2排放成本 CO2损害 能源消费 LMDI模型 影响因素 金砖五国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-08-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-06-15 |
Comparative study of BRICS’ CO2 emission cost and its influential factors based on LMDI model |
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| LIANG Dapeng,LIU Tiansen,LI Yijun.Comparative study of BRICS’ CO2 emission cost and its influential factors based on LMDI model[J].Resources Science,2015,37(12):2319-2329. | |
| Authors: | LIANG Dapeng LIU Tiansen LI Yijun |
| Institution: | 1. School of Management,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150001,China 2. National Natural Science Foundation of China,Department of Management Science,Beijing 100085,China |
| Abstract: | As the major industrial economy in the world,the greenhouse gas emissions of the BRICS group have a decisive impact on regional environmental quality and there is lack of literature analyzing BRICS’ carbon emissions comparatively. Here,we explored the key influential factors on BRICS’ CO2 emission cost according to data from 1992 to 2012 based on the LMDI model. We found that increases in unit cost of CO2 emission and per capita GDP enhance BRICS’ CO2 emission cost significantly and the decline of energy intensity helps reduce CO2 emission cost of Russia,South Africa,China and India. The increase of petroleum and gas consumption enhance CO2 emission cost of Brazil and South Africa but the declining consumption trend of coal and petroleum reduce CO2 emission cost of Russia. The large size of fossil energy consumption plays a more significant role in enhancing CO2 emission cost of China and India. According to analysis on key influential factors of BRICS’ CO2 emission cost,improving the level of emission reduction technology,perfecting industrial emission reduction mechanisms and optimizing energy structures are important approaches to reducing the unit cost of CO2 emission,the amount of CO2 emission and energy intensity. We discuss policy implications for CO2 emission in China. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emission cost CO2 damage energy consumption LMDI model influential factors BRICS |
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