| 河北省人口变动与普通高等教育的发展 |
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| 引用本文： | 武素敏,梁秋生.河北省人口变动与普通高等教育的发展[J].河北师范大学学报(教育科学版),2012(7):60-63. |
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| 作者姓名： | 武素敏 梁秋生 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河北师范大学资源与环境学院,河北石家庄,050024
2. 河北师范大学人口研究所,河北石家庄,050024 |
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| 摘 要： | 自上个世纪末期以来,河北省普通高等教育规模出现了跨越式的发展,招生人数由1998年的17.85万剧增到2011年的48.53万,高校数量由48所增至110所。通过对河北省未来10年的人口预测分析表明,未来几年普通高等教育适龄人口将快速减少,到2015年将降至374.51万人,不及2008年峰值725.27万人的52%;适龄人口迅速锐减与高校招生规模急剧扩张"剪刀式"发展趋势,将导致高考录取率在2015年突破百分之百,千军万马拥挤"高考独木桥"的历史行将结束,高等学校将面临生源短缺危机。
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| 关 键 词： | 普通高等教育 录取率 生存危机 |
The change of population and the development of general higher education in Hebei province |
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| WU Su-min
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LIANG Qiu-sheng.The change of population and the development of general higher education in Hebei province[J].Journal of Hebei Normal University,2012(7):60-63. |
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| Authors: | WU Su-min LIANG Qiu-sheng |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Resources and Environment,Hebei Normal University,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050024,China; 2.Institute of Population,Hebei Normal University,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050024,China) |
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| Abstract: | The general higher education of Hebei has undergone a frantic uplift since the end of last century.Enrollment increases from 0.1785 million in 1998 to 0.4853 million in 2011,while colleges grow from 48 to 110.Study shows that the population of Hebei decreases over the next 10 years in that school-aged children amount to 3.75 million in 2015,which is 52% of the 7.2527 million in 2008.The growth of universities and decline of population is to take the scissored type.The college entrance examination will not be in tension any longer,but the universities will be short of student resources. |
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| Keywords: | general higher education enrollment rate survival crisis |
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