| 从石油供需缺口论我国石油安全策略 |
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| 引用本文： | 周总瑛.从石油供需缺口论我国石油安全策略[J].资源科学,2004,26(6):111-117. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周总瑛 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国石油化工股份有限公司石油勘探开发研究院 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国石油化工集团可持续发展油气资源战略研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 我国石油生产形势比较严峻，今后产量只能保持稳中略有上升的势头。但随着国民经济持续、高速的发展，石油需求增长幅度较大，今后石油供需缺口占国内石油需求的比例将不断上升，预计2005年、2010年和2015年将分别为38.6%、46.0%和53.4%。为此，本文根据我国油气资源勘探现状、能源消费结构和经济发展等特点，对未来我国石油安全策略提出五条具体建议：立足国内，保障石油基本供应；大力发展天然气，以气代油，减轻国民经济发展对石油需求的压力；积极利用国际石油资源，弥补国内石油供应缺口，保证国民经济发展的需要；依靠科技进步，提高能源利用效率，实施可持续发展方针；建立国家石油战略储备，提高应对突发事件的能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 石油 产量 需求 供需缺口 安全策略 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7588(2004)06-0111-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年12月10 |
Discussion on Petroleum Safety Strategy in China Judged by Petroleum Gap of Supply and Demand |
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| ZHOU Zong-ying.Discussion on Petroleum Safety Strategy in China Judged by Petroleum Gap of Supply and Demand[J].Resources Science,2004,26(6):111-117. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Zong-ying |
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| Abstract: | The oil production situation in China is quite stern, in the future oil output is only to keep steady, with a little increasing range. It is estimated that oil output will reach 170 million tons in 2005, 175 million tons in 2010, 170 million tons in 2015. But along with the continuing and high-speed growth of national economy, oil demand will increase with rather huge range. According to elasticity ratio of petroleum consumption and petroleum consumption index method, it is expected that oil demand will be 277 million tons in 2005, 324 million tons in 2010, 365 million tons in 2015. The proportion that the gap of supply and demand takes domestic oil demand goes up continuously in the future, it is estimated that it will be 38.6% in 2005, 46.0% in 2010 and 53.4% in 2015 respectively. Along with petroleum supply degree depending on external rises continuously, the government has already regard the grain, water resource and petroleum resource as three strategic resources that affect society and economy sustainable development in China. Therefore, according to the characteristics such as resources exploration situation、energy consumption structure and economic growth in China, the five piece of specific suggestion concerning petroleum safety strategy in the future are put forward as following：Basing on domestic resources, to ensure basic supply; To develop vigorously natural gas industry, replacing oil by gas, alleviating the pressure of oil demand needed by national economy development; To utilize actively international oil resources, make up domestic oil supply gap, guarantee the needs of national economy development; Relying on science and technology progress, enhance the efficiency of energy utilization, carry out sustainable development strategy; Establishing national petroleum strategic reserve, to rise the ability to tackle outburst incident. |
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| Keywords: | Oil Production Demand Gap of supply and demand Safety strategy |
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