| 湖北省自然灾害灰色系统实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 栾晓梅.湖北省自然灾害灰色系统实证分析[J].湖北第二师范学院学报,2012(7):78-81. |
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| 作者姓名： | 栾晓梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖北第二师范学院经济与管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 2009年度湖北省教育厅人文社会科学青年研究项目(2009q172) |
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| 摘 要： | 湖北由于地理位置的特殊性,自然灾害频发。应用灰色系统理论方法,分析湖北省自然灾害经济损失及各影响因素之间的关联度,并建立灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,进行自然灾害经济损失发展趋势预测和趋势关联分析,得出森林病虫鼠害、森林火灾和农作物成灾面积等是湖北省抗灾、减灾的重点。最后根据趋势预测和关联分析的结果,建立水灾灾变预测模型,研究湖北省水灾发生的时间分布特征,预测结果表明未来近期内,2018年和2012年将分别可能发生重大和中度水灾。
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| 关 键 词： | 湖北自然灾害 关联分析 GM(1 1)模型 灾变预测 |
Grey System Empirical Analysis of the Natural Disasters in Hubei Province |
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| LUAN Xiao-mei.Grey System Empirical Analysis of the Natural Disasters in Hubei Province[J].Journal of Hubei University of Education,2012(7):78-81. |
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| Authors: | LUAN Xiao-mei |
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| Institution: | LUAN Xiao-mei(School of Economics and Management,Hubei University of Education,Wuhan 430200,China) |
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| Abstract: | Because of Hubei Province’s geographical specificity,natural disasters always happen.To use the grey system theory approach,the correlation analysis between Hubei Province’s economic losses of the natural disaster and the involved factors,establishing the grey GM(1,1) predictable model.Make an associated analysis and forecasting for the developmental trend of the economic losses of natural disasters.The result is that the forest pest,forest fires and crop disaster area are the important points for Hubei Province to resist and mitigate the disasters.Finally,according to the results of the trend forecast and associated analysis,the model of predicting the flood disaster changes is established,to study the features of the floods’ time distribution in Hubei Province,and thereby it is predicted that in the near future,or rather in 2018 and 2012,respectively,there would be a major and moderate flooding. |
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| Keywords: | natural disasters in Hubei Province analysis of the correlation GM(1 1)model prediction of disaster changes |
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