| 中国东部冬季气温和降水的气候变化特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 周伟东,史 军,穆海振.中国东部冬季气温和降水的气候变化特征分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(6):1088-1096. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周伟东 史 军 穆海振 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 上海市城市环境气象中心,上海,200135
2. 上海市气候中心,上海,200030 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(编号：40901031)；上海市自然科学基金项目(编号：09ZR1428800；10ZR1427600)；国家“十一五”科技支撑计划重点项目(编号：2007BAC29B05)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用中国东部1951年-2007年冬季气温、降水资料及NECP/NCAR再分析资料、NINO3-4区海温资料、欧亚纬向风指数和南方涛动指数,采用气候统计诊断方法,探讨了中国东部3个气候带(热带、副热带和温带)冬季气温和降水的变化特征及与大气环流和海温的关系。结果表明:过去57年间,中国东部热带、副热带和温带冬季平均气温、平均最高和最低气温均有不同程度的增加趋势,其中温带地区增温最为显著而热带地区增温幅度最小。3个气候带冬季降水量的变化趋势都不明显,但≥0.1mm降水日数呈下降趋势。副热带地区≥5.0mm降水日数显著增加,而热带和温带变化趋势不明显。3个气候带冬季平均气温、最高气温和最低气温与西伯利亚高压指数、东亚冬季风强度指数和欧亚纬向风指数显著相关,大气环流和海温与各气候带≥5.0mm降水日数的相关性好于与≥0.1mm降水日数的相关性。
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| 关 键 词： | 气温 降水 变化特征 大气环流 海温 冬季 中国东部 |
Climate Change Characteristics of Winter Temperature and Precipitation in Eastern China |
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| ZHOU Weidong,SHI Jun and MU Haizhen.Climate Change Characteristics of Winter Temperature and Precipitation in Eastern China[J].Resources Science,2010,32(6):1088-1096. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Weidong SHI Jun and MU Haizhen |
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| Abstract: | Based on winter temperature and precipitation data in eastern China from 1951 to 2007, National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research of the United States (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, sea surface temperature data in NINO3-4 zone, Eurasian zonal circulation index and Southern Oscillation Index, climate change characteristics of winter temperature and precipitation and their correlation with atmospheric circulation as well as sea surface temperature were analyzed in three climate zones, i.e., tropical, subtropical and temperate zones of eastern China using the climate statistic and diagnostic methods. Results indicated that in the past 57 years, the mean, maximum and minimum winter temperature in the three climate zones all increased, with the most increase in the temperate zone and the least increase in the tropical zone. The mean maximum winter temperature was the highest during the period from 2001 to 2007, and was the lowest during the periods from 1951 to 1960 and from 1961 to 1970 in the three climate zones. The rise range of the mean minimum winter temperature was found to be broader than that of the mean maximum winter temperature in the temperate and subtropical zones, but in tropical zones, the difference in the rise range between mean minimum and maximum winter temperature was not appreciable. Changes in winter precipitation in the three climate zones were not significant, but days with daily precipitation larger than 0.1 mm decreased significantly in winter. In the past 57 years, days with daily precipitation larger than 0.1 mm decreased obviously in the subtropical zone, with a decreasing rate of 1.7 d per 10 years, and in the tropical and temperate zones, the decreasing rates were found to be 1.6 d and 0.5 d per 10 years, respectively. Days with daily precipitation larger than 5.0 mm increased significantly in the subtropical zone, but changed slightly in the tropical and temperate zones. As for temporal distributions, in the past 57 years, days with daily precipitation larger than 5.0 mm were the most in 2006, and the least in 1967, which increased at a rate of 0.39 d per 10 years. It was indicated that the mean, maximum and minimum winter temperature in the three climate zones were highly correlated with the Siberian high index, intensity index of East Asian winter monsoon and Eurasian zonal circulation index. The correlations between atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature and days with daily precipitation larger than 5.0 mm were higher than that for days with daily precipitation larger than 0.1 mm. In general, in subtropical and temperate zones, days with daily precipitation larger than 5.0 mm were mainly correlated with the high-latitude weather system, but in tropical zones, days with daily precipitation larger than 5.0 mm were mainly correlated with the low-latitude system. |
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| Keywords: | Temperature Precipitation Change characteristics Atmospheric circulation Sea surface temperature Winter Eastern China |
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