| “十四五”时期我国粮食生产的发展态势及风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨翠红,林康,高翔,陈锡康,汪寿阳.“十四五”时期我国粮食生产的发展态势及风险分析[J].中国科学院院刊,2022,37(8):1088-1098. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨翠红 林康 高翔 陈锡康 汪寿阳 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100049 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重大项目（19ZDA062）,国家自然科学基金（72103184、71988101、71974183） |
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| 摘 要： | 民为国本,粮为民本,如何在“十四五”时期有效保障我国粮食安全,缓解各类潜在风险,是目前亟待解决的问题。文章对“十四五”时期我国粮食生产的发展态势进行展望,并聚焦分析粮食生产的主要风险因素。文章认为“十四五”时期,我国粮食生产将平稳发展,粮食产量呈上升趋势,在“十四五”期末有望达到6.9亿吨以上。提出“十四五”时期我国粮食生产主要面临自然资源约束加剧,劳动力约束加大,种子产业发展缓慢,规模化、机械化程度不高,生产过度集中,以及重大突发事件频发等潜在风险因素。最后,针对上述风险因素提出了政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 粮食产量 粮食生产 风险 "十四五"时期 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/4/27 0:00:00 |
Analysis on Development and Risks of China's Food Production During 14th Five-Year Plan Period |
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| YANG Cuihong,LIN Kang,GAO Xiang,CHEN Xikang,WANG Shouyang.Analysis on Development and Risks of China's Food Production During 14th Five-Year Plan Period[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2022,37(8):1088-1098. |
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| Authors: | YANG Cuihong LIN Kang GAO Xiang CHEN Xikang WANG Shouyang |
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| Institution: | Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | Food security is crucial to national security. Thus, it is an urgent task to figure out the potential risks that threaten China''s food security during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and how to cope with those risks. This paper provides an outlook for the development of China''s food production during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and then points out the potential risks faced by food production. The paper demonstrates that China''s food production will achieve a steady development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and the grain output will reach more than 690 Mt by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The paper argues that the main potential risks faced by food production during the 14th Five-Year Plan period include the increasing intensive constraints on natural and labor resources, the slow development of the seed industry, the low degree of scale and mechanization, the over-concentration phenomenon, and the frequent occurrence of major events. In the end, corresponding suggestions are proposed corresponding to the above risks. |
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| Keywords: | grain output food production risks 14th Five-Year Plan period |
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