Framing the Problem: effects of wording on children's statistical inferences |
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| Authors: | Sik Hung Ng Margaret‐Ellen Pipe Bruce Beath Derek Holton |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Psychology , Victoria University of Wellington , New Zealand;2. Psychology Department , University of Otago , New Zealand;3. Dunedin College of Education , New Zealand;4. Department of Mathematics &5. Statistics , University of Otago , New Zealand |
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| Abstract: | ABSTRACT A total of 96 children aged 11 to 12 years were given statistical inference problems (base‐rate and law of large numbers) designed to test the effects of wording on their answers. The wording of the problems was manipulated to make the information on base‐rates and on the law of large numbers either more salient or less salient. The latter condition was established by adding extraneous information to base‐rates, or, in the case of the law of large numbers, making the context unfamiliar or focusing choice on a particular person rather than on the group. A significant main effect of wording was found across all problems in favour of the salient condition. The results indicated that the children had a high level of statistical intuition and that they knew when to reason statistically and when not to. |
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