| 基于IOWA算子的安徽省固定资产投资的组合预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 衡杰,杨桂元,张槟.基于IOWA算子的安徽省固定资产投资的组合预测[J].六安师专学报,2013(1):42-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 衡杰 杨桂元 张槟 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030 |
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| 摘 要： | 以1990～2011年安徽省固定资产投资为样本区间,运用VAR预测模型、指数预测与二次移动平均预测3种单项预测方法,以预测误差平方和最小准则,建立IOWA算子组合预测模型。对该模型的预测有效度进行评价,结果表明：该组合预测模型能有效提高预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | VAR模型 IOWA算子 组合预测 |
Combination Forecasting of Fixed Assets Investment in Anhui Province on the Basis of IOWA Operator |
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| Authors: | HENG Jie YANG Gui-yuan ZHANG Bin |
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| Institution: | (Institute of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance ＆ Economics,Bengbu 233030,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the sample data from 1990 to 2011 of fixed assets investment in Anhui province,applying three single forecasting methods： VAR forecasting model,index forecasting and the second moving average forecasting,this paper establishes combination forecasting model on the basis of IOWA operator by forecasting squared errors and minimum criteria.We evaluate the validity of the forecasting model.The result shows that the forecasting model can improve the prediction accuracy effectively. |
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| Keywords: | VAR model IOWA operator combination forecasting |
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