| 基于Logistic增长曲线模型的大学在校学生数量发展预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭怀祖.基于Logistic增长曲线模型的大学在校学生数量发展预测[J].教育与经济,2011(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭怀祖 |
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| 作者单位： | 南通大学; |
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| 基金项目： | 全国教育科学规划教育部重点课题“多校区高校运行成本节约研究”(课题批准号:DFA090361) |
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| 摘 要： | 由1983-2009年高等教育在校学生数的增长趋势图可以发现,我国高等教育规模发展表现为一种S形增长,为此构建logistic增长曲线模型,并结合1983-2009年数据对未来10年我国高等教育在校学生数进行预测。预测结果略高于《国家中长期教育改革和发展规划纲要》的规划值,它从一个侧面印证了规划值的科学性,也说明了高等教育规模规划存在微调的可能性。
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| 关 键 词： | 高等教育 规模 预测 logistic增长曲线模型 |
The Predict of the Number of Students in School of Universities Based on Logistic Growth Curve Model |
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| PENG Huaizu.The Predict of the Number of Students in School of Universities Based on Logistic Growth Curve Model[J].Education & Economy,2011(3). |
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| Authors: | PENG Huaizu |
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| Institution: | PENG Huaizu(Nantong University,Nantong 226007,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the growth tendency chart of students in higher education in 1983-2009,it appears a S shaped growth in scale development of higher education.So this paper builds the logistic growth curve model and predicts the number of students in higher education in the next 10 years combined with the 1983-2009 data.The result of prediction is slightly higher than the planning value of national long-term reform and development plan(2010-2020),it comfirms the sicence of planning value from one aspect,and also... |
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| Keywords: | higher education scale predict the logistic growth curve model |
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