| 上市公司财务危机预警模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 姜秀华,任强,孙铮.上市公司财务危机预警模型研究[J].预测,2002,21(3):56-61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜秀华 任强 孙铮 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海财经大学,上海 200083 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目 (A70 0 72 0 18) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文在分析13个变量的基础上,运用Logistic回归给出了判别上市公司财务危机的一个模型。本文模型包括4个变量：毛利率、其它应收款与总资产的比率、短期借款与总资产的比率、股权集中系数;其中的股权集中系数是公司治理结构的直接表征,也是本文模型异于其他预测模型的首要区别。本方模型的回判准确率为84．52％,而对2000年新增加的“ST”公司的判别准确率则达到了95．45％。
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| 关 键 词： | 上市公司 财务危机 Logistic回归 判别模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-5192(2002)03-0056-06 |
A Forecasting Model of Financial Distress for Listed Companies |
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| JIANG Xiu-hua,REN Qiang,SUN Zheng.A Forecasting Model of Financial Distress for Listed Companies[J].Forecasting,2002,21(3):56-61. |
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| Authors: | JIANG Xiu-hua REN Qiang SUN Zheng |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of factor-analyzing, we provide a discriminating model of financial distress for the listed companies. Our model includes four factors: marginal ratio?ratio of other accounts receivable to total assets?ratio of short-term liabilities to total assets and ownership concentration coefficient. Ownership concentration coefficient is a direct expression of corporate governance and is also the dominant difference from other forecasting models for financial distress. The accurate rates of our model are 84.52% for-1-year data and 95.45% for the new-added "ST" companies of 2000. |
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| Keywords: | financial distress Logistic regression discriminating model |
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