| 我国上市公司财务困境预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨晟源.我国上市公司财务困境预测研究[J].昆明师范高等专科学校学报,2009,31(5):94-99. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨晟源 |
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| 作者单位： | 昆明市财政局教科文处,云南昆明650041 |
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| 摘 要： | 有效的财务困境预测系统能预知财务危机的征兆。采取主成分分析法和Logistic回归分析法相结合的方法，建立财务困境预测模型对财务指标进行分析，能更有效地对我国上市公司进行财务困境预测。为此，我同上市公司信息披露应加强对公司财务状况判断能力较强的财务指标的披露，尤其是反映偿债能力和现金获取能力的财务指标的披露。国家有关部门还应建立一套比较健全的“财务风险预警制度”。
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| 关 键 词： | 上市公司 财务困境 困境预测 财务分析 主成分分析 逻辑回归 |
Study on Financial Predicament Forecast of Listed Company in China |
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| YANG Sheng-yuan.Study on Financial Predicament Forecast of Listed Company in China[J].Journal of Kunming Teachers College,2009,31(5):94-99. |
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| Authors: | YANG Sheng-yuan |
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| Institution: | YANG Sheng-yuan (Education Science and Culture Department, Bureau of Finance of Kunming City, Yunnan Kunming 650041 ,China) |
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| Abstract: | The efficient financial predicament forecast system predicts the evidence of financial crisis. To take the combined method of principal component analysis and logistic regression analysis, to set up financial predicament forecast model for analysis on financial index enable efficiently the financial predicament forecast for the listed company in our country. Therefore, the information publishing of the listed company should be focused on the publishing of the financial index which has a strong judgment on the company＇s financial situation, reflects debts paying ability and cash acquiring ability. A set of perfect ＂financial crisis early warning system＂ should be established by the department concerned in our country. |
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| Keywords: | listed company financial predicament predicament forecast financial analysis principal component analysis logical regression |
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