| 中国实施CDM项目的CO2减排资源:一种经济-技术-能源-环境条件下CGE模型的评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈可挺,徐嵩龄,贺菊煌.中国实施CDM项目的CO2减排资源:一种经济-技术-能源-环境条件下CGE模型的评估[J].中国软科学,2002,136(7):109-114. |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈可挺 徐嵩龄 贺菊煌 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京,100732
2. 中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京,100732;中国社会科学院环境与发展研究中心,北京,100732 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金资助项目(99BJY034) |
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| 摘 要： | 中国人均GHG排放量在达到世界平均水平前,增排将是合法的。但是,如果中国在快速经济增长时,通过CDM项目合作,使增排量减少,这将既有利于发达国家降低成本减排,又有利于中国的可持续发展,对全球环境和经济都有好处。本文以中国“经济结构变化”、“技术进步”、“能源结构改善”以及“环境标准和法规的强化”作为要素,构造中国的CDM方案,并利用CGE模型测算这些要素改进时可能产生的CO2减排资源。本文还比较了不同方案的减排效率,分析了参数变化对减排量影响的性态特征。
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| 关 键 词： | 清洁发展机制(CDM) 减排资源 减排方案 发展型减排 CGE模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-9753(2002)07-0109-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年1月10日 |
China's CO2 Emission Reduction Resulting from CDM Implementation: A CGE- Based Evaluation under Certain Economy- Technique- Energy- Environment Condition |
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| SHEN Ke -ting,XU Song -ling,HE Ju -huang.China''s CO2 Emission Reduction Resulting from CDM Implementation: A CGE- Based Evaluation under Certain Economy- Technique- Energy- Environment Condition[J].China Soft Science,2002,136(7):109-114. |
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| Authors: | SHEN Ke -ting XU Song -ling HE Ju -huang |
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| Institution: | SHEN Ke -ting 1,XU Song -ling 1,2,HE Ju -huang 1 |
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| Abstract: | The increase of China' s per capita GHG emission is reasonab le provided the emission is less than the world average.However,the emissio n reduction is possible through CDM i mplementation during China' s rapid economic growth.It is not only beneficial to Annex I country' s cost -effective emission reductio n but also beneficial for China' s sustainable development.In this p aper,economic structure,technolo gical innovation,energy efficiency,and environ-mental -protection regulation are r egarded as four major driving factors.Based on them individually or synt hetically,different Scenarios are made up.A CG E model is employed to calculate emis sion reduction of scenarios with above -mentioned factors improving.The paper also makes a comparison of effectiveness of emission reduction betwe en dif-ferent scenarios,and an analysis of characteristics of the impact of parameter change on emission reduction. |
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| Keywords: | CDM CO-2 emission reduction development -o riented emission reduction CDM sce nario CGE -based e-valuation |
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