R&D priority-setting for global catastrophic risks: The case of the NASA planetary defense mission |
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| Authors: | Scott Janzwood |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Business Administration, Lund University, Lund, Sweden;2. Institute for Future Initiatives, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan;3. Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, Alliance Manchester Business School, Manchester, UK.;1. Mannheim Center for European Social Science Research (MZES), A5, 6, Bauteil A, 68159 Mannheim, Germany;2. Alfred-Weber Institute of Economics, Heidelberg University, Bergheimer Str. 58, 69115 Heidelberg, Germany;3. Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, United States;4. D''Amore-McKim School of Business, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, United States;5. Khoury College of Computer Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, United States;6. Institute for Quantitative Social Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States;1. Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129, Torino, Italy;2. Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino and BRICK, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Piazza Arbarello 8, 10122, Torino, Italy;1. University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90128, Palermo, Italy;2. Warwick Business School – University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom;1. Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, the Netherlands;2. WHU Otto Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 2, 56179 Vallendar, Germany |
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| Abstract: | "Mission-oriented" public research organizations invest in R&D to improve decision-making around complex policy problems from climate change to asteroid impacts, thus producing public value. However, the estimation of benefits produced by such R&D projects is notoriously difficult to predict and measure - a challenge that is magnified for global catastrophic risks (GCRs). GCRs are highly uncertain risks that may pose enormous negative consequences for humanity. This article explores how public research organizations systematically reduce key uncertainties associated with GCRs. Building off of recent literature highlighting the organizational and political factors that influence R&D priority-setting at public research organizations, this article develops an analytical framework for explaining R&D priority-setting outcomes that integrates the key stages of decision analysis with organizational and political dynamics identified in the literature. This framework is then illustrated with a case study of the NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office, which addresses the GCR of near-Earth object (asteroid and comet) impacts. The case study reveals how organizational and political factors interact with every stage in the R&D priority-setting process - from initial problem definition to project selection. Lastly, the article discusses the extent to which the case study can inform R&D priority-setting at other public organizations, particularly those addressing GCRs. |
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