| 中国城市水灾危险性与可持续发展 |
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| 引用本文： | 王静爱,王珏,叶涛.中国城市水灾危险性与可持续发展[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2004(3):138-143. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王静爱 王珏 叶涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学,地理学与遥感科学学院、区域地理研究重点实验室、环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京,100875 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划),国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 选择我国城市人口在60万以上的70个城市,从灾害系统角度构建了水灾孕灾环境、承灾体和致灾因子的危险性评价指标体系;采用成因分析法提出危险性评价模型并编制了中国城市水灾危险性评价图。结果表明:这些城市普遍存在水灾危险性,其中水灾最危险的城市为天津、武汉和广州;极高度危险的城市有12个,都处在我国各大城市群的核心区;高度危险的城市达18个,基本位于历史洪涝灾害多发区,并以长江中下游地区的城市为主。从城市孕灾环境开始减灾,通过调整和优化城市土地利用结构,在城市留出一定面积的特殊用地,即"洪水用地",让洪水来时"有处可去"。这种"与洪水共存"的城市减灾与可持续发展的理念,是城市洪水风险管理的一个重要的基本理念,具有指导作用和实践价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市水灾 灾害系统 危险指数 可持续发展 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-0209(2004)03-0138-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年2月4日 |
Hazard Assessment of Urban Flood Disaster and Sustainable Development in China |
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| WANG Jing-ai,WANG Jue & YE Tao ural Disaster of Ministry of Education of China,BNU,Beijing ,China.Hazard Assessment of Urban Flood Disaster and Sustainable Development in China[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Social Science Edition),2004(3):138-143. |
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| Authors: | WANG Jing-ai WANG Jue & YE Tao ural Disaster of Ministry of Education of China BNU Beijing China |
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| Institution: | WANG Jing-ai,WANG Jue & YE Tao ural Disaster of Ministry of Education of China,BNU,Beijing 100875,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper, from the perspective of disaster system theory, sets up a hazard assessment index system in terms of the hazard-formation environments, the hazard-affected bodies and the hazard-formation factors, of 70 cities chosen in China, the total population of which is over 600 thousand. And a hazard assessment model is put forward by means of analyzing the formation causes of urban flood disaster, and the corresponding map is worked out. The result shows that all these cities have flood risk, the highest of which are Tianjin, Wuhan and Guangzhou, and the hazard index is over 4.5. 12 cities have severe hazard indices (3.5～4.5), all within the core areas of big cities. Other 18 cities have high hazard indices (3～3.5), most of which are located in the areas with long historical records of high frequency of flood, chiefly in the middle-down reaches of Yangtze River. About 17 cities have moderate value (2.5～3); 16 have relatively slight risk (2～2.5); 4 have the lowest (less than 2).The author accordingly proposes a countermeasure called "co-existence with flood", that is, to reserve a particular area along such cities "for possible flood". This has a practical significance of sustainable development. |
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| Keywords: | city flood disaster disaster system hazard index sustainable development |
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