| 因果关系:困境与迷途中的思考 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑凯.因果关系:困境与迷途中的思考[J].沈阳体育学院学报,2011,30(6):60-63. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑凯 |
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| 作者单位： | 沈阳体育学院体育教育学院,辽宁沈阳,110102 |
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| 摘 要： | 在体育科学研究实践中,常常见到一些研究者将利用统计方法建立起来的变量间的相关联系,直接解释为现象间的因果关系,并试图依此对结果做出预测,这完全是对因果关系的误解和误用.有鉴于此,通过对因果关系研究的追溯,客观评价因果分析现状,梳理因果关系研究方法,最大程度地消除关于因果关系的误会与误解,以使人们能够更清醒、理智地进行因果分析,更加科学地运用因果规律认识和把握千变万化的世界.迄今为止,无论是关于因果关系的概念、判定原则还是判定方法,都没有提供具有充分性和必要性的完备条件.因此,所做出的都应该是“初始原因”或“假定原因”判断.统计规律不等同于因果规律,所谓“格兰杰因果关系检验”说到底也是一种统计检验方法,不能作为肯定或否定因果关系的最终根据.对于因果关系,人们至今还没有找到真正有效的解决办法.
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| 关 键 词： | 因果关系 判定 概念 原则 方法 |
Causality:Thinking in Difficulty and Puzzle Situation |
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| ZHENG Kai.Causality:Thinking in Difficulty and Puzzle Situation[J].Journal of Shenyang Sport University,2011,30(6):60-63. |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Kai |
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| Institution: | ZHENG Kai(Physical Education School,Shenyang Sport University,Shenyang 110102,Liaoning,China) |
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| Abstract: | It is common that the researchers regard the relationship between the variable values gained by statistical methods as the causality of phenomenon and they always predict based on the result when they make a study of sports science.Actually,it is absolutely a wrong understanding and misuse of causality.For this reason,in the theses,in order to eliminate common misunderstanding of causality further,the author tries to evaluate the current situation of causality and hackles the studying methods of it by ascending the study history of causality,which can help the researchers face the world more scientifically,and do their study more soberly and wisely.Until now,no matter that the definition of causalityis,or the principles and the methods of evaluation,all of them still have not provided us enough and necessary study condition.So,what we can evaluate actually is the initial or hypothetic reason.Statistical regularity does not equal to causality.The so-called Granger Causality Test is also a kind of statistical test method,and it can not be used as the final basis to be certain or to be negative.As for causality,we still have not found a perfect way to deal with it. |
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| Keywords: | causality evaluation definition principle methods |
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