| 巢湖水质污染的社会经济因子分析及趋势研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 白现广,王金,李进华.巢湖水质污染的社会经济因子分析及趋势研究[J].蒙自师范高等专科学校学报,2011(4):77-81. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 白现广 王金 李进华 |
| |
| 作者单位： | [1]平顶山学院,河南平顶山467000 [2]平顶山市第一高级中学,河南平顶山467000 [3]安徽大学生命科学学院,安徽合肥230039 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 安徽省教育厅科技创新团队（TD200703）; 安徽省人才开发基金; 安徽大学学术创新团队项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 文章运用灰色关联分析法探讨了2000-2006年间影响巢湖水质的社会经济因子,并采用灰色预测模型对未来五年巢湖水质的污染状况进行了预测.以期为巢湖水污染治理提供新思路.结果表明巢湖COD的排放,主要受流域工业废水排放的影响,其次受农村人口的生活中产生的污水排放的影响;TN主要受农业生产中农药化肥的大量使用的影响;TP主要受城镇、农村人口的生活废水垃圾排泄物的影响.模型预测结果显示未来五年巢湖水质有望好转,但是湖区水质TN、TP指标仍介于Ⅳ～Ⅴ类之间.因此,今后巢湖水质的主要污染物是TN、TP,而农业和城镇、农村人口的生活废水排放将成为污染物的主要来源.有必要采取发展生态农业、控制含磷商品的使用、加强对农村生活污水尽可能的集中处理等措施有效控制巢湖的水质污染.
|
| 关 键 词： | 灰色关联法 巢湖水质 社会经济因子 灰色预测 |
Research on the Social Economy Factorial Analysis and Water Pollution in Chaohu Basin |
| |
| BAI Xian-guang,WANG Jin,LI Jin-hua.Research on the Social Economy Factorial Analysis and Water Pollution in Chaohu Basin[J].Journal of Mengzi Teachers' College,2011(4):77-81. |
| |
| Authors: | BAI Xian-guang WANG Jin LI Jin-hua |
| |
| Institution: | 1.Pingdingshan University,Pingdingshan 467000,China;2.No.1 Senior Middle School of Pingdingshan,Pingdingshan 467000,China;3.School of Life Science in Anhui University,Hefei 230039,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper mainly employ the grey correlation analysis to conduct profound research on the socio-economic factors that affect the quality of Chaohu Basin from 2000-2006.At the same time,this paper employs the grey prediction model to conduct forecast on the pollution circumstance of the Chaohu Basin quality in the future five years in order to provide new insights for the water pollution management of the Chaohu Basin.The research findings show that the emissions of COD in Chaohu Basin are overwhelmingly influenced by the industrial wastewater discharge,and they are impacted followed by the sewage disposal result from the life of the rural population.Concerning the TN,it is mainly affected by the large-scale use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers in the process of agricultural production.With regard to the TP,it primarily impacted by the living wastewater refuse by the urban and rural population.Based on the grey model,it predicts that it is expected to improve the water quality of Chaohu Basin the nest five years.Concerning the CODMn Index of the water quality of Chaohu Basin,it is estimated that by 2010,it will basically achieve the ⅡClass standard,while the TN and TP Indexes will be still between the Ⅳ～Ⅴ Class Standard.Therefore,the future major pollutants for the Chaohu Basin are TN and TP,while the pivotal pollutants sources are living wastewater discharged by the urban and rural population.It is proposed that it is high time to strengthen the efforts on the residential pollution sources at the same time under the countermeasures of industrial restructuring and controlling industrial agricultural pollution sources in order to protect the water resources environment within the Basin as well as promote Basin regional social sustainable development in the future. |
| |
| Keywords: | grey correlation analysis water quality of Chaohu Basin socio-economic factors grey prediction |
| 本文献已被 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
