| 基于DSGE模型的碳减排目标和碳排放政策效应研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨翱,刘纪显,吴兴弈.基于DSGE模型的碳减排目标和碳排放政策效应研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(7):1452-1461. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨翱 刘纪显 吴兴弈 |
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| 作者单位： | 华南师范大学经济与管理学院, 广州510006;华南师范大学经济与管理学院, 广州510006;华南师范大学经济与管理学院, 广州510006 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社科基金项目：“碳资产的特殊风险与收益研究”（编号：11BJY143）；教育部规划基金项目：“国际碳资产组合选择与定价”（编号：10YJA790114）；广东省社科规划基金重大资助项目（打造“理论粤军”重大资助项目）：“主体功能区规划下广东生态交易的理论探索──基于碳配额交易的视角”（编号：LLYJ1318）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 伴随着中国经济的高速发展,能源消耗和二氧化碳排放大幅增加,环境问题影响经济的可持续增长已是不争的事实,然而国内很少有文献系统地研究碳排放政策对我国经济增长的影响。本文通过建立一个动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,比较了相同减排目标下,没有碳排放政策、碳排放强度、碳排放上限和碳税四种不同碳排放政策的优劣,分别分析了在20%和40%的减排目标下,这四种政策对宏观经济变量稳态值的影响,并利用1980年到2012年的我国碳排放量和GDP数据模拟了正向的技术冲击和污染中间产品效率冲击对经济的影响。研究结果表明:①在相同的碳减排目标下,碳排放强度政策较其他政策更能促进经济的平稳增长,达到稳态值损失的社会福利最小。碳排放上限政策和碳排放税政策对经济的影响相同;②两种冲击在没有碳排放政策的情况下对经济均有长期的影响,且技术冲击的影响程度更大;③技术进步和污染中间产品使用效率的提高具有回弹效应。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济增长 排放政策 减排目标 回弹效应 DSGE模型 |
Carbon Reduction Targets and Effects of Emissions Policy Based on DSGE Modeling |
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| YANG Ao,LIU Jixian and WU Xingyi.Carbon Reduction Targets and Effects of Emissions Policy Based on DSGE Modeling[J].Resources Science,2014,36(7):1452-1461. |
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| Authors: | YANG Ao LIU Jixian and WU Xingyi |
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| Institution: | School of Economics and Management, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510006, China;School of Economics and Management, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510006, China;School of Economics and Management, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510006, China |
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| Abstract: | With the rapid development of China's economy,energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions have increased significantly. It is an indisputable fact that environmental problems have negative impacts on economic growth. Consensus has grown on the need for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Even though considerable debate has compared the different environmental policies of the European Union and other regions,there has been little analysis of the effects of carbon emissions policy on China's economy. Here,we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model to analyze the influence of four different policies (no carbon emissions policy,carbon emissions intensity,emissions cap and carbon tax)on China's economy. We compare the four policies with the same emissions reduction target,and then analyze the effects of 20% and 40% emissions reduction targets on macroeconomic variables. We also simulated the impacts of a positive technology shock and a positive efficiency shock on the economy based on carbon emissions and GDP data from 1980 to 2012. Using the DSGE model we found that the carbon intensity policy does encourage more economic growth than other policies once the carbon reduction target is settled and reaches the emissions reduction target at the lowest welfare cost in the steady state. Impacts of carbon emissions caps and carbon emissions tax on the economy are the same in the framework of this model. Technology shock and efficiency shock have long-term effects on the economy in the absence of carbon emissions policy,and effects of the technology shock are greater than efficiency shock. The long-term rebound effect is obvious since some part of polluting intermediate goods conservation is offset by a new round of polluting intermediate goods consumption resulting from rapid economic growth. |
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| Keywords: | economic growth emissions policy emissions reduction targets rebound effect DSGE model |
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