| 等待期权对数字保存项目投资评价的影响--基于用户访问价格的离散变化分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨敏.等待期权对数字保存项目投资评价的影响--基于用户访问价格的离散变化分析[J].数字图书馆论坛,2014(12):50-55. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 中山大学资讯管理学院,广州510006 |
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| 摘 要： | 计算项目投资收益的净现值（NPV）可以评价投资产生的经济效益。由于数字保存项目的投资过程存在着许多不确定因素，在不同时间进行的投资可能会产生不同的收益净现值，所以数字保存项目的价值受等待期权价值的影响。文章引入等待期权定价理论，分析影响用户访问价格的因素，进而采用模型分析法，分别建立了基于用户访问价格的二阶段和三阶段离散变化模型案例，量化了等待期权的价值，给出了最优投资决策，说明了用户访问价格对项目投资评价的重要影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 等待期权 数字保存项目 投资评价 |
The Influence of Waiting Option on Investment Evaluation for Digital Preservation Based on Discrete Changes in User Access Prices |
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| YANG Min.The Influence of Waiting Option on Investment Evaluation for Digital Preservation Based on Discrete Changes in User Access Prices[J].Digital Library Forum,2014(12):50-55. |
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| Authors: | YANG Min |
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| Institution: | YANG Min (School of Information Management, Sun Yat-Scn University, Guangzhou 510006, China) |
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| Abstract: | Calculating the project investment income net present value （NPV） can evaluate the economic benefits generated by the investment. The investment process of digital preservation projects has many uncertainties. Different times may produce different benefits of NPV. So the values of digital preservation projects are subject to the value of waiting option influence. This paper describes the waiting option pricing theory, and analyzes the factor of user access prices. then using the model analysis, based on two-stage change and three-stage user access prices, the discrete change model case are established. This quantized the value of waiting option, shows the optimal investment decision case, and explains important impact user access prices on the project investment evaluation. |
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| Keywords: | Waiting option Digital preservation project Investment evaluation |
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