| 中国人口预测的数学模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋超,杨琳,付敏.中国人口预测的数学模型[J].内江师范学院学报,2008,23(12). |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋超 杨琳 付敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 内江师范学院数学与信息科学学院,四川,内江,641112 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过建立Logistic模型对中短期人口数量进行预测.结果表明,近20年我国人口总量呈平稳上升趋势;利用BP神经网络对长期人口进行预测.结果显示,人口总量将呈抛物线变化,并在2035年左右达到峰值.男女性别比逐渐平衡;文盲率迅速下降,人口文化素质在不断提高;但我国人口结构却有老龄化趋势.
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| 关 键 词： | 人口预测 Logistic回归 BP神经网络 |
Mathematical Model for Chinese Population Forecast |
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| JIANG Chao,YANG Lin,FU Min.Mathematical Model for Chinese Population Forecast[J].Journal of Neijiang Teachers College,2008,23(12). |
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| Authors: | JIANG Chao YANG Lin FU Min |
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| Institution: | JIANG Chao; YANG Lin; FU Min(College of Mathematics and Information Science; Neijiang Normal University; Neijiang; Sichuan 641112; China); |
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| Abstract: | By establishing a Logistic model to forecast the short-and medium-term population size,the result reveals that the total population of our country in the recent twenty years shows a steady growing tendency.And the forecast of the long-term population size through the use of BP neural network shows the change curve of the population size is to take the shape of a parabola with the population size reaching its peak around 2035;the sex ratio between men and women will gradually get balanced;and a rapid decline in the rate of illiteracy is expected as the population and cultural qualities steadily improve;an aging demographic structure will then pose a big threat,so the current fertility policy needs to be adjusted to suit the changing situation. |
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| Keywords: | population forecast Logistic regression BP neural network |
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