| 基于LMDI的山东省能源消费碳排放因素分解 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋杰鲲.基于LMDI的山东省能源消费碳排放因素分解[J].资源科学,2012,34(1):35-41. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋杰鲲 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院, 青岛 266555 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社科一般项目(编号:10YJC630207);山东省自然科学基金项目(编号:ZR2011GQ004);山东省高校科研发展计划项目(编号:J10WG94);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(编号:11CX04034B,10CX04012B) |
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| 摘 要： | 近年来山东省在经济发展取得显著成绩的同时也出现了碳排放量增加问题。本文基于《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》测算了各种能源的碳排放系数,并对山东省2000年-2009年能源消费碳排放量进行测算。运用对数平均迪氏分解(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index, LMDI)方法将山东省能源消费碳排放分解为人口、人均财富、产业结构、能源消费强度和能源消费结构等五方面效应。结果表明,以2000年为基期,截止2009年除能源消费强度因素的累积效应为负值外,其余四种因素的累积效应均为正值。从逐年效应来看,人均财富是碳排放增加的最大拉动因素,人口仅有微弱的拉动作用,能源消费强度对碳排放具有较强的抑制作用,能源消费结构、产业结构对碳排放量具有一定的作用,但其作用方向尚不稳定。针对分析结果,提出了相关建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 山东省 能源消费碳排放 因素分解 对数平均迪氏分解方法 |
Factor Decomposition of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption of Shandong Province Based on LMDI |
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| SONG Jiekun.Factor Decomposition of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption of Shandong Province Based on LMDI[J].Resources Science,2012,34(1):35-41. |
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| Authors: | SONG Jiekun |
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| Institution: | School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266555, China |
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| Abstract: | In recent years, Shandong Province has achieved remarkable performance in economic development. Meanwhile, it is being faced with problems of increasing carbon emissions. Based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, this study calculated the coefficient of carbon emissions for different energy. By using these coefficients and amount of energy consumption, carbon emissions from energy consumption of Shandong Province from 2000 through 2009 were calculated. Results show that the carbon emissions from energy consumption were increasing at an annual rate of 16.06%. Using the logarithmic mean weight Divisia method (LMDI), the carbon emissions were decomposed into five effects, i.e., population, per capita wealth, industrial structure, energy consumption intensity, and energy consumption structure. On the basis of the LMDI model, effects and accumulated effects of different factors were explored. Given that the consumption of some energy in an industry in a given year may be zero, four computational formulas of factor decomposition under these exceptional cases were also provided. Based on the effects of different factors, the effect distributions of them were defined. The decomposition results show that using year 2000 as the base year, the accumulated effect of energy consumption intensity was negative, whereas the accumulated effects of the other four factors were all positive. Among five factors, the per capita wealth was found to be the largest contributor of carbon emissions. The population played a negligible role in carbon emissions. The energy consumption intensity was considered to be a strong constraint for carbon emissions. The fluctuation of its effect was generally consistent with that of the energy consumption intensity. The energy consumption structure and industrial structure showed certain effects, but their impacts warrant further study. The variation trend in energy consumption structure effect was in accordance with that of the ratio of high carbon energy. The variation trend in the industrial structure was identical to that of GDP proportion of the secondary industry. Some recommendations on carbon emissions reduction from energy consumption of Shandong Province were given based on the analysis, i.e., maintaining a reasonable GDP growth rate, enhancing the educational level of population, saving energy and improving energy efficiency, developing low carbon energy, exploiting new energy, optimizing energy consumption structure, reducing the ratio of the secondary industry, speeding up the tertiary industry, and optimizing the industrial structure. |
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| Keywords: | Shandong Province Carbon emissions from energy consumption Factor decomposition LMDI |
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