| 未来40年安徽省常住人口预测研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王仙慧,吴晨,田飞.未来40年安徽省常住人口预测研究[J].合肥教育学院学报,2014(2):76-82. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王仙慧 吴晨 田飞 |
| |
| 作者单位： | [1]安徽大学社会与政治学院,合肥230601 [2]安徽大学人口研究所,合肥230601 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 以2010年安徽省常住人口数据为基年队列数据，采用队列因素法中的场景预测方法，结合历史数据为参数数据，依次对预测参数进行了高、中、低三个方案的预测。采用中国人口与发展研究中心主导研发的国际人口预测软件PADIS—INT，对未来40年安徽省常住人口总量、老年人口、劳动适龄人口和人口负担系数变动趋势进行了预测研究，分析得出安徽省常『主人口总量不会超过7000万人口，人口老龄化趋势十分严重，未来老年人口负担系数将不断增加，劳动适龄人口不断下降，呈负增长率。
|
| 关 键 词： | 安徽 常住人口 场景预测 结果分析 |
On the Prediction of the Resident Population of Anhui in the Coming Forty Years |
| |
| Authors: | WANG Xian-hui WU Chen TIAN fei |
| |
| Institution: | ( a. School of Sociology and Political Science; b. Institute of Population Research, Anhui University, Hefei 230601 ,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Based oil the base year queue date primarily including the permanent resident population of 2010 in Anhui Province, the paper adopts the scenario prediction method to do a research on the prediction parameters of 3 different levels, which is combined with the historic dates. It uses the PADIS-INT, a software contributing to studying the prediction of international population, to predict the total population of the permanent resident, the aging of the older, the active labor force and the great burden it brings about. A conclusion is drawn that the permanent resident population is no more than 70 million, and the tendency of the aging of the population is worse, meanwhile the burden of the elder will be more and heavier. Besides, the active labour force will be less and less. |
| |
| Keywords: | Anhui permanent resident population scenario prediction analysis of the research |
| 本文献已被 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
