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气候变化对我国中长期发展的影响分析及对策建议
引用本文:谭显春,顾佰和,王毅.气候变化对我国中长期发展的影响分析及对策建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(9):1029-1035.
作者姓名:谭显春  顾佰和  王毅
作者单位:中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573249),中科院科技战略咨询院重大咨询项目(Y02015003),中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2014091)
摘    要:全球变暖会对人类和生态系统造成严重、普遍和不可逆转的影响。从《京都议定书》到《巴黎协定》,关于碳减排的多方会谈一直在艰难中前行。2017年6月初,美国宣布退出《巴黎协定》,给不容乐观的全球减排前景又添加了一层阴影。我国作为全球最大的发展中国家,人口众多,地形地貌复杂多样,极易遭受气候变化不利影响,气候变暖带来的社会系统风险不断增加。当前,我国处于国内经济转型和践行"一带一路"倡议的重大历史时期,应当从维护国家安全的高度看待应对气候变化问题,充分发挥我国在全球气候治理体系中的领导力。这既是我国广泛参与全球治理、构建人类命运共同体的责任担当,更是实现可持续发展,推动绿色低碳转型,提高我国综合竞争力的内在要求。

关 键 词:气候变化  巴黎协定  一带一路  绿色转型
修稿时间:2017/7/20 0:00:00

Impact Analysis and Countermeasures for Climate Change on Long-term Development of China
Tan Xianchun,Gu Baihe and Wang Yi.Impact Analysis and Countermeasures for Climate Change on Long-term Development of China[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(9):1029-1035.
Authors:Tan Xianchun  Gu Baihe and Wang Yi
Institution:Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China,Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China and Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Abstract:Global warming is causing serious, universal, and irreversible impacts to humans and ecosystems. From the Kyoto Protocol to the Paris Agreement, multilateral conference about carbon emission reduction has been through an arduous way. In early June of 2017, the United States announced their retreat from the Paris Agreement, which will add a negative shadow to the gloomy prospect of global emissions. As the world''s largest developing country, China is much more vulnerable to the adverse effects derived from climate change because of its large population, complex and varied topography. Climate warming will increase the risk in social system to a large degree. Meanwhile, at present, China is in its important historical period of domestic economy transformation and of realizing "Belt and Road Initiative", which requires us to view the issue of climate change at the height of defending the national security, and also requires us to give full play to the leadership in the global climate governance system. This issue is not only relevant to our wide participation in global governance and our responsibility of building the community of human destiny, but also is beneficial for the inherent requirements to realize sustainable development, to promote green low carbon transformation, and to improve the comprehensive competitiveness of China.
Keywords:climate change  the Paris Agreement  Belt and Road Initiative  green transformation
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