| 基于可计算一般均衡模型的航空制造业需求带动效应和要素配置研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王梦婕,赵子健.基于可计算一般均衡模型的航空制造业需求带动效应和要素配置研究[J].科技管理研究,2014(23). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王梦婕 赵子健 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 复旦大学经济学院,上海,200433
2. 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海,200052 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重点项目“世界产业发展新趋势与我国培育发展战略性新兴产业跟踪研究”(12 AZD046)；国家社会科学基金重点项目“新产业革命背景下我国产业转型的体制机制创新研究” |
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| 摘 要： | 构建上海地区航空产业的可计算一般均衡模型,通过闭合方式的选择使得要素内生,研究分析航空制造业需求增加带来的经济效应和要素流动,为产业有序发展提供依据。结果表明:进口替代与出口导向都有利于本地航空制造业快速成长,并通过产业关联作用于经济增长;产业发展同时提供了大量就业机会以及投资需求,刺激了当地消费,有助于形成持续的经济增长动力;在产业层面上,航空制造业发展有利于第一产业和第三产业增长,对第二产业的带动效应偏弱,尤其在重型工业方面。
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| 关 键 词： | 航空制造业 可计算一般均衡模型 进口替代 出口导向 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/5/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/11/18 0:00:00 |
The Research on Demand Pull and Factor Allocation of Aircraft Manufacturing Industry Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model |
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| WANG Mengjie,ZHAO Zijian.The Research on Demand Pull and Factor Allocation of Aircraft Manufacturing Industry Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2014(23). |
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| Authors: | WANG Mengjie ZHAO Zijian |
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| Abstract: | The paper built a computable general equilibrium model, in which factor variables could be endogenous in certain closure condition, to study the economic effects and factor allocation induced by demand pulls so as to provide the basis for orderly development of the aircraft manufacturing industry in Shanghai. Simulation results indicated that, aircraft manufacturing industry would get rapid growth by the import substitution or export orientation strategy, and the local economy could also be benefited through the industrial association. Meanwhile the industrial development offered a large number of employment opportunities and financial needs, which stimulated the native consumption and contribute to the formation of sustainable economic growth. At the industry level, the expansion of aircraft manufacturing industry was conducive to the primary industry and tertiary industry, while had weak driving effect on the secondary industry, especially in heavy industry. |
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| Keywords: | aircraft manufacturing industry computable general equilibrium model import substitution export orienta-tion |
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