| 2014年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 姬强等.2014年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2014,29(1):8-12. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姬强等 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100190 [2]中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京100190 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（71133005,70825001,71203210） |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对影响国际油价的主要因素进行系统分析,我们认为,2014年供需基本面和宏观经济走势将主导全年油价走势。美元汇率走强会在一定程度上打压油价,市场投机活动和地缘政治风险也都将对市场波动产生不同程度的影响。通过我们建立的定性定量相结合的油价综合分析预测系统,得到如下预测结果,2014年国际油价水平将整体下降,Brent年平均油价为104美元/桶,WTI年平均油价为95美元/桶,两者平均价差进一步缩小。
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| 关 键 词： | 石油市场 油价预测 供需基本面 宏观经济 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013/10/24 0:00:00 |
International Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis and Price Forecast in 2014 |
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| Ji Qiang Zhang Haiying＇ Liu Minglei＇ Fan Ying.International Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis and Price Forecast in 2014[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2014,29(1):8-12. |
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| Authors: | Ji Qiang Zhang Haiying＇ Liu Minglei＇ Fan Ying |
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| Institution: | Ji Qiang Zhang Haiying＇ Liu Minglei＇ Fan Ying＇2 Center for Energy ＆ Environment Policy Research, Institute of Policy ＆ Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China 2 Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China) |
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| Abstract: | The paper investigates the main factors influencing international oil market in 2014. It is found that international oil prices are mainly dominated by the global economy and oil supply fundamentals. The appreciation of US dollar index may sup- press oil prices, while speculative activities and geopolitical risks can influence oil price volatilities to some extent. A synthetic oil price analysis and forecasting system was established in the study. The forecasting results demonstrate that the oil prices will present slightly downward trend, the Brent average year price of 2014 may stand at 104 dollar per barrel, and the WTI av- erage year price mostly stand at 95 dollar per barrel. The gap between Brent and WTI will be narrower. |
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| Keywords: | oil market oil price forecast supply and demand macro economy |
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