| 北京市居民消费配置的能源反弹效应 |
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| 引用本文： | 孔丽,胡广文,穆献中.北京市居民消费配置的能源反弹效应[J].资源科学,2022,44(10):2022-2037. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孔丽 胡广文 穆献中 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京工业大学材料与制造学部，北京 100124 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目(72174015);国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3902605);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72203208) |
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| 摘 要： | 提高能源效率被认为是短期内减缓能源消费增长速度的主要途径，但其有效性可能受到能源反弹效应的影响。由于价格变化带来的居民消费行为改变是能源反弹产生的重要来源。对于高居民收入、高消费能力的北京市而言，无疑会消纳大量的由产品能源效率提升而增加的产能，这加大了居民消费行为改变所产生的能源反弹风险。因此，本文建立了LA-AIDS模型对北京市居民消费特征进行分析；在此基础上，对相应能源效率提升比例下居民消费再分配等行为进行仿真，量化2000—2019年北京市能源反弹效应的大小，并对不同类型能源商品和服务消费产生的能源反弹量进行比较；同时，使用Slutsky分解方法将价格变化导致的居民能源消费变化的替代效应和收入效应进行分解，深入探索北京市居民消费配置的能源反弹效应产生的关键因素。研究发现：①北京市居民消费带来的能源反弹结果存在完全反弹和部分反弹两种现象，且商品价格变化的收入效应是能源反弹的主要来源；②居住类商品对整体能源反弹效应的促进效果最为明显，交通通信类商品对整体能源反弹效应的抑制效果最为明显；③家庭部门中居民的消费习惯和消费意愿，不同类型商品的能源效率提升比例，和能源成本占比均会影响能源反弹的程度。最后，本文从居民、生产企业和政策制定者3个主体角度提出有效缓解能源反弹效应的相关建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 反弹效应 居民消费配置 需求弹性 LA-AIDS模型 Slutsky方程 仿真分析 北京市 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-06-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022-09-28 |
Energy rebound effects associated with consumption distribution of residents in Beijing |
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| KONG Li,HU Guangwen,MU Xianzhong.Energy rebound effects associated with consumption distribution of residents in Beijing[J].Resources Science,2022,44(10):2022-2037. |
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| Authors: | KONG Li HU Guangwen MU Xianzhong |
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| Institution: | Faculty of Materials and Manufacturing, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China |
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| Abstract: | Improving the energy efficiency is considered the main way to reduce energy consumption in the short term, but its effectiveness may be alleviated due to the existence of rebound effect. Since the change of residents’ consumption behavior caused by price fluctuation is an important source of energy rebound effect, which will further be amplifed due to the high level of residential income in Beijing, this study established a LA-AIDS model to analyze the consumption characteristics of Beijing residents. On this basis, the consumption redistribution and other behaviors of residents under the corresponding proportion of energy efficiency improvement were simulated to quantify the energy rebound effect of Beijing from 2000 to 2019, and the energy rebound amounts generated by the consumption of different types of energy goods and services were compared. Meanwhile, the substitution effect and income effect of residential energy consumption change caused by price fluctuation were decomposed according to the Slutsky equation, and the key factors of residential energy rebound effect in Beijing were further explored. Results suggest that: (1) The energy rebound of Beijing’s residential sector has two phenomena: backfire effect and partial rebound effect, and the income effect due to price fluctuation is the main source of energy rebound effect. (2) Residential goods have the most obvious promoting effect on the increase of the energy rebound effect, while transportation and communication goods have the most obvious inhibiting effect. (3) The consumption behaviors of residents, the proportion of energy efficiency improvement in different product categories, and the ratio of energy in total costs all contribute to the general degree of rebound effects. Finally, this article puts forward some recommendations on how to effectively mitigate the energy rebound effect from the perspectives of residents, manufacturers, and policymakers. |
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| Keywords: | energy rebound effect residents’consumption distribution demand elasticity LA-AIDS model Slutsky equation simulation analysis Beijing |
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