| 基于短板理论的中国畜禽养殖资源承载风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩冬梅,汪刚,田晓喻.基于短板理论的中国畜禽养殖资源承载风险评估[J].资源科学,2022,44(10):2074-2088. |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩冬梅 汪刚 田晓喻 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北大学经济学院，保定 071002 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目(18BGL166);2022年度牧业经济研究基金项目(XMZZ042022055) |
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| 摘 要： | 畜禽养殖业作为中国农业产业中的重要组成部分，当前面临着稳定产能和环保约束的双重挑战。在畜禽养殖格局不断调整的背景下，须要关注由此带来的局部区域资源超载的风险。本文基于“短板理论”构建了畜禽养殖资源承载风险指数，分析了2010—2019年中国29个省份的畜禽养殖资源承载风险及短板要素，利用空间自相关方法分析了省域风险的集聚性。研究表明：①耕地资源承载风险是中国大部分地区养殖业发展面临的主要问题，且存在较高的风险集聚性，整体来看风险呈下降趋势，华南和西南地区风险高于其他区域；②水资源约束是中国北方地区尤其是京津冀地区畜禽养殖资源承载风险的最大短板；③养殖重点发展区域普遍资源承载风险较高，存在资源要素短缺的风险。由此，提出如下建议：构建畜禽养殖资源承载风险长期评估和预警体系，将最稀缺的“短板”要素作为最重要的警示要素，在区域养殖规划中采取“以短定养”；推进畜禽粪便资源化利用，坚持种养结合是降低耕地资源承载风险的重要途径；完善跨区域生态补偿机制与资源环境协作机制，处理好整体和局部的关系，尤其应关注风险较大的养殖重点地区。
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| 关 键 词： | 畜禽养殖 养殖布局 资源承载力 资源环境风险 风险评估方法 短板理论 中国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-06-13 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022-09-12 |
Resources carrying risk of livestock and poultry breeding in China based on the short board theory |
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| HAN Dongmei,WANG Gang,TIAN Xiaoyu.Resources carrying risk of livestock and poultry breeding in China based on the short board theory[J].Resources Science,2022,44(10):2074-2088. |
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| Authors: | HAN Dongmei WANG Gang TIAN Xiaoyu |
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| Institution: | School of Economics, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, China |
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| Abstract: | As an important part of China’s agricultural industry, livestock and poultry breeding industry is currently facing the dual challenges of stable production capacity and environmental protection constraints. Under the background of continuous adjustment of livestock and poultry breeding industry layout, the resulting risk of local and regional resources overload must be paid more attention to. In this study, we constructed a breeding resources carrying risk index (BRCRI) based on the short board theory, examined the breeding resources carrying risk and the factors of “short board” in all regions of China from 2010 to 2019, and analyzed the agglomeration of regional risk values using the spatial autocorrelation method. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) The cultivated land resources carrying risk was the main problem in most areas of China for the development of breeding industry, and there are a high risk concentration. The overall risk was declining, while the risk in South China and Southwest China was higher than that in other regions; (2) Water resource was the most significant short board factor of breeding resources carrying capacity in northern China, especially in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; (3) The risk of resources carrying was generally higher in those key areas for breeding development, and there is always a risk of resources shortage in these regions. The following recommendations were put forward. First, a long-term risk assessment and early warning system for the regional breeding resources carrying capacity should be established and the scarcest resource element should be the most important warning elements. The principle of breeding scale determined by the scarcest resources should be adopted in the regional breeding planning; Secondly, promoting the resource utilization of livestock and poultry manure and adhering to the combination of planting and breeding are the most important ways to reduce the cultivated land resources carrying risk; Finally, the cross-regional ecological compensation and resource-environmental cooperation mechanism should be improved in order to better coordinate the relationship between the whole and the part. In this process, the breeding key areas with high breeding resources carrying risk should be paid special attention to. |
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| Keywords: | livestock and poultry breeding breeding industry layout resources carrying capacity resource and environmental risk risk assessment method short board theory China |
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