| 基于系统动力学的2000-2050年上海市化石能源CO2排放情景模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 林晓娜,张飞舟.基于系统动力学的2000-2050年上海市化石能源CO2排放情景模拟[J].科技管理研究,2022,42(9):222-230. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林晓娜 张飞舟 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京大学地球与空间科学学院,北京 100871 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于系统动力学方法和联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)排放因子法，对上海市 2000—2019 年的化石能源 CO2排放进行定量核算，构建上海市化石能源 CO2排放系统动力学模型，并模拟基础排放、低排放、高排放 3 种情景下的未来 CO2排放变化。研究发现：(1)根据 2000—2019 年统计数据，上海市化石能源的 CO2排放从 2003 年开始攀升，到 2010 年开始趋于平稳增长，其中增长最快的阶段为 2004—2007 年，增长了 32.7%;(2)上海市生产总值(GDP)年增长，2050 年低排放情景较基础情景下降 25%，高排放情景较基础情景上升 33%;(3)2020—2050 年低排放情景的能源消费量呈下降趋势，基础情景与高排放情景的能源消费量呈先增后降趋势，分别在 2029 年、2037 年达到峰值，但能源强度从高到低为低排放情景、基础情景、高排放情景，主要是由于 GDP 增长问题导致；(4)基础情景与低排放情景的 CO2排放在 2030 年达到峰值，...
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| 关 键 词： | 化石能源 CO2排放 IPCC排放因子法 系统动力学 情景模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/10/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021/11/4 0:00:00 |
Scenario Simulation of CO2 Emission of Fossil Energy in Shanghai from 2000 to 2050 Based on System Dynamics |
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| Lin Xiaona,Zhang Feizhou.Scenario Simulation of CO2 Emission of Fossil Energy in Shanghai from 2000 to 2050 Based on System Dynamics[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2022,42(9):222-230. |
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| Authors: | Lin Xiaona Zhang Feizhou |
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| Abstract: | Global warming is becoming more and more serious, controlling CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions is an important way for the Chinese government to implement carbon reduction policies. Based on the system dynamics method and the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) emission factor method, the CO2 emissions of fossil energy in Shanghai from 2000 to 2019 is quantitatively accounted, the system dynamic model of the CO2 emission of fossil energy in Shanghai is constructed, and the future CO2 emission changes under the three scenarios of basic emission, low emission and high emission are simulated. The study shows that: (1) According to the statistical data from 2000 to 2019, the CO2 emission of fossil energy in Shanghai began to climb from 2003 to 2010.SSThe fastest growth period was from 2004 to 2007, with an increase of 32.7%.SS(2) The GDP of Shanghai will increase year by year. In 2050, the low emission scenario will decrease by 25% and the high emission scenario will increase by 33% compared with the basic scenario.SS(3) From 2020 to 2050, the energy consumption of low emission scenario will decrease, while the energy consumption of basic scenario and high emission scenario will increase first and then decrease, peaking in 2029 and 2037, respectively.SSHowever, energy intensity from high to low is low emission scenario, base scenario and high emission scenario, which is mainly caused by GDP growth.SS(4) CO2 emissions of the base and low emission scenarios will peak in 2030.SThe CO2 emission of the low emission scenario is 4.4% lower than that of the basic scenario.SSCO2 in the high emission scenario will peak in 2033, rising by 5.6% compared with the base scenario.SSThe research results show the development of different scenarios in Shanghai, which can provide theoretical support and data reference for relevant government departments in Shanghai to formulate low-carbon policies. S |
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| Keywords: | Fossil energy CO2 emissions IPCC emission factor method System dynamics Scenario simulation |
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