| 中国农村水贫困风险评价、障碍因子及阻力类型分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙才志,董璐,郑德凤.中国农村水贫困风险评价、障碍因子及阻力类型分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(5):895-905. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙才志 董璐 郑德凤 |
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| 作者单位： | 辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心, 大连 116029;辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心, 大连 116029;辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院, 大连 116029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金（编号：11BJY063）；教育部新世纪优秀人才项目（编号：NCET-13-0844）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 在构建农村水贫困灾害风险评价指标体系的基础上,本文结合TOPSIS模型对2011年我国31个省(市)地区农村水贫困风险进行测度。并利用障碍因子诊断法计算了不同地区的水贫困风险障碍度,为分析农村地区指标层主要障碍因子,降低灾害风险,实现农村水资源的综合利用找到了突破方向。具体考察指标层障碍因子后,文章利用LSE模型结合子目标层障碍度得分,对农村水贫困风险进行系统阻力模式分析,将我国农村水贫困风险管理阻力划分为3种模式:双系统阻力模式(E-R型、S-T型、T-R型、S-R型和E-T型)、三系统阻力模式(S-T-R型、E-T-R型和E-S-T型)和四系统阻力模式(E-S-T-R型)。阻力类型空间分布结果表明:经济系统和社会系统对我国中西部地区的阻力作用大于东部沿海地区,生态系统对我国大部分地区水贫困管理起阻力作用,对西南和华南地区而言,资源系统的阻力作用要小于其他地区,我国大部分地区集中于三系统和四系统阻力模式,其中以E-S-T-R型阻力模式最为普遍。
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| 关 键 词： | 农村水贫困 灾害风险 障碍因子 TOPSIS模型 障碍度模型 LSE模型 |
Rural Water Poverty Risk Evaluation, Obstacle Indicators and Resistance Paradigms in China |
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| SUN Caizhi,DONG Lu and ZHENG Defeng.Rural Water Poverty Risk Evaluation, Obstacle Indicators and Resistance Paradigms in China[J].Resources Science,2014,36(5):895-905. |
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| Authors: | SUN Caizhi DONG Lu and ZHENG Defeng |
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| Institution: | KRI-Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development of Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China;KRI-Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development of Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China;School of Urban Planning and Environment Science, Liaoning Normal Unversity, Dalian 116029, China |
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| Abstract: | The study of rural water poverty can provide a basis for theoretical research into the integrated management of rural water resources,and plays a positive role in promoting the dynamic observation of water poverty and the development of disaster risk precautionary systems. Based on the establishment of a Chinese rural water poverty risk measurement index system,we applied the TOPSIS model to measure rural water risks in 31 provinces and cities in China in 2011. We used the obstacle indicators diagnosis method to evaluate the water risk obstacle degree in different areas,analyze the major obstacle factors in index layers,reduce disaster risk and achieve the multipurpose utilization of water resources in a rural area. After analyzing the index layer obstacle factors and integrating a LSE model with sub-target layers obstacle degree,we analyzed the system resistance paradigm for rural water poverty risk and arrived at three paradigms:double-systems resistance paradigm(E-R type,S-T type,T-R type,S-R type and E-T type);three-systems resistance paradigm(S-T-R type,E-T-R type and E-S-T type);and four systems resistance paradigm (E-S-T-R type). The spatial pattern of resistance indicates that the resistance force of the economic system and social system is higher than other regions;resistance of the ecological system works in most of the regions;and the resistance of the resource system is lower in southwest and southern China than other places. Most rural areas focus on the three-system resistance paradigm and four-system resistance paradigm. Among them,the E-S-T-R type is the most common. |
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| Keywords: | rural water poverty disaster risk obstacle indicators TOPSIS Model obstacl degree Model LSE Model |
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