| 基于贝叶斯网络的创新策源能力影响机制研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 基于贝叶斯网络的创新策源能力影响机制研究.基于贝叶斯网络的创新策源能力影响机制研究[J].科学学研究,2021,39(10):1897-1907. |
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| 作者姓名： | 基于贝叶斯网络的创新策源能力影响机制研究 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学 |
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| 摘 要： | 创新策源能力是国家高质量发展的本质要求，是应对国际挑战的战略选择。基于创新策源能力的相关研究和贝叶斯网络基本原理，构建了创新策源能力影响机制贝叶斯网络模型，运用数学推理、算法简化和算例分析，通过改变贝叶斯网络中初始节点先验概率和中间节点条件概率，对创新策源能力多元化、复杂化、不确定影响因素的动态变化状态进行了模拟和仿真。研究结果表明：基于贝叶斯网络的创新策源能力研究，不仅将理论化、复杂化、系统化、结构化的创新策源能力问题转化成了可量化、可比较的数学问题，而且打破了传统研究影响机制问题单一、静态的局限，为创新策源能力影响机制的动态变化过程提供了理想的解决方案，为创新策源能力的培育、发展和提升提供了参考和支持。
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| 收稿时间： | 2020-09-01 |
Research on influence mechanism of creational and original capacity based on Bayesian network |
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| Abstract: | Creational and original capacity is the essential requirement of national high-quality development and a strategic choice to cope with international challenges. Based on the related research of creational and original capacity and the basic principle of Bayesian network, this paper constructs the Bayesian network model of the influence mechanism of creational and original capacity. By using mathematical reasoning, algorithm simplification and example analysis, the dynamic change state of diversification, complexity and uncertainty influencing factors of creational and original capacity is simulated and carried out by changing the prior probability of initial node and conditional probability of intermediate node in Bayesian network. The research results show that: the research on creational and original capacity based on Bayesian network not only transforms the theoretical, complex, systematic and structured creational and original capacity into a quantifiable and comparable mathematical problem, but also breaks the traditional single and static limitations of the influence mechanism, and provides an ideal dynamic change process for the influence mechanism of creational and original capacity. The solution provides reference and support for the cultivation, development and promotion of creational and original capacity. |
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