| 科技进步、碳排放的演变与中国应对气候变化之策 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈劭锋,李志红.科技进步、碳排放的演变与中国应对气候变化之策[J].科学技术与辩证法,2009,26(6):102-107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈劭锋 李志红 |
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| 作者单位： | 陈劭锋(中国科学技术大学管理学院,合肥,230026;中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京,100190);李志红(中国科学院研究生院人文学院,北京,100049) |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目，国家自然科学基金重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 以气候变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化已成为国际社会关注的焦点问题。科技进步是应对气候变化的核心和关键。文章在揭示科技进步与应对气候变化国际发展趋势的基础上，探讨了科技进步与碳排放演变之间的关系，证明了科技进步驱动下碳排放的演变依次遵循三个“倒 U型”曲线规律，即碳排放强度倒U型曲线、人均碳排放量倒U型曲线和碳排放总量倒U型曲线，并据此提出了中国应对气候变化的对策和建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 科技进步 碳排放 演变 气候变化 IPAT方程 |
Technical Advances, Evolution of Carbon Emissions and Tactics for China to Deal with Global Climate Change |
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| Institution: | CHEN Shao - feng, LI Zhi - hong ( 1. School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China ; 2. Institute of Policy and Management Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing lO0190,China; 3. College of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China) |
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| Abstract: | The global climate change characterized by climate warming has attracted great attention of international community. Technical advances are the core and key to deal with climate change. Based on reflecting the international trends on technical advances and dealing with climate change, this paper discusses the relationship between technical advances and the evolution of carbon emissions, and testifies that carbon emissions process driven by technical advances over time generally follows in sequence three inverted U shape curves in the long run, that is, the inverted - U shape curve of carbon emissions intensity, carbon emissions per capita, and total carbon emissions respectively. Finally, some suggestions for China to combat against climate change are given. |
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| Keywords: | technical advances carbon emissions evolution climate change IPAT equation |
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