| 基于情景分析法的中国碳排放分配预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 马海良,张红艳,吴凤平.基于情景分析法的中国碳排放分配预测研究[J].软科学,2016(10):75-78. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马海良 张红艳 吴凤平 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学 低碳经济研究所,江苏 常州,213022 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41471457)；中央高校业务基金项目(2013 B30614)；河海大学常州校区研究生科技创新项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于公平原则、效率原则和溯往原则三个分配视角建立碳排放分配模型,并根据九种不同的分配情景对我国2020年碳配额分配展开预测研究。结果显示:溯往原则视角会增加我国碳排放分配总额,且对资源丰富的省市影响较大;效益原则视角对我国碳排放分配的影响略小于溯往原则视角,主要影响东部等发达区域分配的碳配额量;而公平原则视角对我国分配的碳配额总量影响较小。最后提出加快技术开发速度、通过供给侧改革大力淘汰落后产能、完善碳权分配机制等建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 碳排放 碳配额 分配预测 情景模式 |
Research on the Prediction of Carbon Emissions Distribution Based on Simulation Analysis |
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| Abstract: | This paper establishes the carbon allocation model by selecting from the proportions of the population , economy and historical emissions , according to three distribution perspective of equity principle , efficiency principle and grandfathe-ring rule.In addition, it forcastes Chinese carbon emissions in 2020 distribution by nine different scenarios .Results show that, the perspective of grandfathering rule will result in increasing the total distribution of Chinese carbon emissions .Be-sides, it will play a big difference to the resourceful and huge emission provinces .The perspective of efficiency principle makes the smaller influence to the carbon emissions compared with grandfathering rule and mainly influences the carbon quota allocation of eastern developed area .And the perspective of equity principle has little impact on distribution of carbon quotas.In the end, it puts forward some policy recommendations , which is related to accelerate the pace of technology de-velopment, to eliminate backward production capacity through the supply-side reform, to improve the allocation of carbon rights mechanisms recommendations , etc. |
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| Keywords: | carbon emissions carbon quotas distribution prediction simulation model |
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