| 空间科学卫星工程项目进度及风险分析——基于蒙特卡洛模拟仿真 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘兵,池宜兴,曾建丽,张荣展.空间科学卫星工程项目进度及风险分析——基于蒙特卡洛模拟仿真[J].科技管理研究,2021,41(13):158-166. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘兵 池宜兴 曾建丽 张荣展 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津 300401;河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津 300401;中国科学院国家空间科学中心,北京 100190;天津城建大学经济与管理学院,天津 300384 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 通过Crystal Ball软件对空间科学卫星工程项目进度进行蒙特卡洛模拟仿真模拟,预测工程项目完成的时间,并进行敏感度分析,识别出整个研制项目过程中的风险主要存在的阶段.研究表明,蒙特卡洛模拟仿真方法是一种适用于空间卫星工程项目进度管理以及风险识别分析的便捷方法;要注重加强对空间科学卫星工程项目立项论证阶段以及正样研制阶段的风险管理.此方法对空间科学卫星工程项目的进度以及风险管理具有一定的决策依据.
|
| 关 键 词： | 空间科学卫星工程项目 蒙特卡洛模拟 进度管理 风险识别 Crystal Ball |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/11/1 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/12/21 0:00:00 |
Progress and Risk Analysis of Space Science Satellite Project Based on Monte Carlo Simulation |
| |
| Liu Bin,Chi Yixing,Zeng Jianli,Zhang Rongzhan.Progress and Risk Analysis of Space Science Satellite Project Based on Monte Carlo Simulation[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2021,41(13):158-166. |
| |
| Authors: | Liu Bin Chi Yixing Zeng Jianli Zhang Rongzhan |
| |
| Abstract: | The project of space science satellite engineering is complex, technically difficult and uncertain. It is difficult to estimate the completion time of the project, and the requirements of project schedule management are high.The progress of space science satellite project is simulated by Monte Carlo simulation through the crystal ball software, the completion time of the project is predicted, and the sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the main stages of risk in the whole development process. The results show that Monte Carlo simulation is a convenient method for schedule management and risk identification analysis of space satellite project; It is necessary to pay attention to strengthening the risk management in the demonstration stage of space science satellite engineering project and the development stage of the prototype. This method has certain decision basis for the progress and risk management of space science satellite project. |
| |
| Keywords: | Space science satellite engineering project Monte Carlo simulation progress management risk identification Crystal Ball |
| 本文献已被 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《科技管理研究》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《科技管理研究》下载免费的PDF全文 |
