| 社会融资结构变迁与物价波动：基于2006-2013月度数据的实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 荚超强.社会融资结构变迁与物价波动：基于2006-2013月度数据的实证研究[J].巢湖学院学报,2015(4):45-49. |
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| 作者姓名： | 荚超强 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽大学经济学院,安徽 合肥,230601 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽大学研究生学术创新扶持项目“社会融资结构变迁与物价波动”的阶段性成果 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析社会融资主要成分，将其分为人民币贷款、直接融资、影子银行以及外币贷款。对社会融资结构与物价水平之间进行理论梳理，通过VAR模型将这四项社会融资主要组成部分建立与CPI的联系。实证结果表明，人民币贷款、直接融资、影子银行以及外币贷款均是CPI的格兰杰原因。人民币贷款发挥基础性作用，影响力较大，而直接融资长期对物价波动有显著影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 社会融资结构 物价水平 货币供应 |
THE EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ON SOCIAL FINANCING STRUCTURE CHANGES AND PRICE FLUCTUATION---BASED ON THE MONTHLY DATA FROM 2006-2013 |
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| Abstract: | The main composition of social financing can be divided into RMB loans, direct financing, shadow banking and for-eign currency loans. This paper tries to analyze the relationship between the structure of social financing and CPI index by the-ory and to establish links between the four main components and CPI index by VAR model. The empirical results show that RMB loans, direct financing, shadow banking and foreign currency loans is the Granger reason of CPI. RMB loans play a funda-mental role and has great impact,while the direct financing has a significant influence on price fluctuation in the long run. |
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| Keywords: | structure of social financing price level money supply |
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