| 港口水域风险评估结论一致性分析模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭冲,方泉根,胡甚平,陈辰.港口水域风险评估结论一致性分析模型[J].上海海事大学学报,2012,33(1):16-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭冲 方泉根 胡甚平 陈辰 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海海事大学商船学院,上海,201306 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市重点学科建设项目（Ｓ３０６０２）；上海市教育委员会科研创新项目（０９ＹＺ２５２） |
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| 摘 要： | 为使港口水域风险评估更加可靠,分析港口航行风险评价方法的一致性.以不同港口水域风险评价方法的评价结果为基础,建立国际海事组织(International Maritime Organization,IMO)推荐的一致性分析模型;根据不同方法的不同侧重点,利用模糊聚类分析方法对港口航行风险的各种评价方法的相似度进行计算、分类;通过两种模型的对比,得出影响因素之间的关联和评价方法的一致性程度.实例证明,对评价方法的一致性分析使港口水域风险评估体系更为完善,可为海事安全管理提供决策支持。
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| 关 键 词： | 港口水域 风险评估 评价方法 一致性 |
| 收稿时间： | 9/1/2011 8:37:35 PM |
| 修稿时间： | 11/7/2011 8:30:52 PM |
Concordance analysis model for results of risk assessment on port water area |
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| GUO Chong
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FANG Quangen
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HU Shenping
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CHEN Chen.Concordance analysis model for results of risk assessment on port water area[J].Journal of Shanghai Maritime University,2012,33(1):16-19. |
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| Authors: | GUO Chong FANG Quangen HU Shenping CHEN Chen |
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| Institution: | Merchant Marine College; Shanghai Maritime University,1,1 and 1 |
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| Abstract: | To make the risk assessment on port water area more reliable, the concordance of the evaluation methods of port navigational risk is analyzed. The concordance index analysis model recommended by International Maritime Organization (IMO) is established based on the evaluation results of different risk assessment methods of port water area. According to the different emphasis of different methods, a fuzzy clustering analysis is used to calculate and categorize the concordance of different assessment methods of port navigational risk. By comparison of the two models, the relevancy among the influencing factors and the concordance of the evaluation methods are found. Examples show that the concordance analysis can make the port water area risk assessment system perfect, which can provide decision support for maritime safety management. |
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| Keywords: | port water area risk assessment evaluation method concordance |
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