| 集装箱托运人意向选择实验设计新方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 陶学宗,诸立超.集装箱托运人意向选择实验设计新方法[J].上海海事大学学报,2021,42(1):56-62. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陶学宗 诸立超 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海海事大学交通运输学院,浙江财经大学工商管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（72074141,71603162）；浙江省自然科学基金（LQ21E080023）；浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题（21NDQN256YB） |
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| 摘 要： | 聚焦集装箱托运人货运选择偏好调查,对意向选择实验(stated choice experiment,SCE)设计方法(问卷设计的核心)进行研究。基于D-error和S-error两个效率指标,提出一种均衡调查效率与调查成本的SCE设计新方法。以义乌至宁波集装箱运输为例,利用试调查数据和新设计方法设计SCE。研究发现:新设计方法的D-error和S-error指标值分别为0.0443和20,小于传统正交设计法的0.0562和61;基于新设计方法、正式调查的SWAIT多元Logit模型(multinomial Logit model proposed by SWAIT,MNLS模型)在拟合优度和显著参数数目上均优于基于正交设计法、试调查的MNLS模型。结果表明,新设计方法能够以较小样本量得到拟合优度更好的模型,揭示更多的托运人货运选择偏好信息,可为高效率、低成本地采集托运人货运选择偏好数据提供一种新途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 集装箱运输 货运方式选择 意向选择实验(SCE) 高效设计 托运人 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/2/21 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/5/6 0:00:00 |
A new design method to stated choice experiments for container shippers |
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| TAO Xuezong and ZHU Lichao.A new design method to stated choice experiments for container shippers[J].Journal of Shanghai Maritime University,2021,42(1):56-62. |
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| Authors: | TAO Xuezong and ZHU Lichao |
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| Institution: | (College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China;School of Business Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China) |
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| Abstract: | Focused on the survey of container shippers’freight choice preference,the core issue in questionnaire design is studied on how to design the stated choice experiment(SCE).A new SCE design method with balance ability between the survey effeciency and the survey cost is presented according to two efficiency indexes of D-error and S-error.Taking container transport from Yiwu to Ningbo as a case,the SCEs are designed by the pilot survey data and the new design method.It is found that the values of D-error and S-error indexes for the new design method are 0.0443 and 20,respectively,which are less than 0.0562 and 61 for the traditional orthogonal design method.The multinomial Logit model proposed by Swait(MNLS model)based on formal survey and the new design method is better than MNLS model based on pilot survey and the orthogonal design method both in goodness-of-fit and the number of significant parameters.The results indicate that,by the new design method,the model with better goodness-of-fit can be obtained with less sample size,and more information on shippers’freight choice preference can be revealed.It can provide a new way to data collection of shippers’freight choice preference with high efficiency and lower cost. |
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| Keywords: | container transportation freight mode choice stated choice experiment (SCE) efficient design shipper |
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