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| 女子自由泳全国纪录的灰色模型及其预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 赵云宏,袁建国,杨书华.女子自由泳全国纪录的灰色模型及其预测[J].北京体育大学学报,2001,24(4):499-500. |
| 作者姓名： | 赵云宏 袁建国 杨书华 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 台州学院体育系, 2. 温州师范学院体育系, 3. 齐齐哈尔大学科研处, |
| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省教育厅人文社会科学基金;; |
| 摘 要： | 本文针对运动成绩变化规律的模糊性、未知性等 ,运用灰色理论的模型方法建立了我国女子自由泳全国纪录 5个项目的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型 ,并进行了后验差检验和关联度分析 ,结果表明预测模型精度均为一级 ,模型可信度较高 ,具有一定的实用价值 ,可以用来揭示女子自由泳各项运动成绩的发展趋势。并对2 0 0 2年的运动成绩进行了预测。 |
| 关 键 词： | 女子自由泳 全国纪录 GM(1 1)预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-3612(2001)04-0499-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年1月25日 |
Grey Model and Prediction of Chinese National Records in Women Freestyle Swimming |
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| ZHAO Yun-hong ,YUAN Jian-guo ,YANG Shu-hua.Grey Model and Prediction of Chinese National Records in Women Freestyle Swimming[J].Journal of Beijing Sport University,2001,24(4):499-500. | |
| Authors: | ZHAO Yun-hong YUAN Jian-guo YANG Shu-hua |
| Institution: | ZHAO Yun-hong 1,YUAN Jian-guo 2,YANG Shu-hua 3 |
| Abstract: | In allusion to the unpredictability and uncertainty of the regularity of the change of athletes' performances and by applying the model of sports grey theory, the grey model (GM 1,1)for predicting the Chinese national records in 5 events of the women freestyle swimming. The after-check difference examination and the relative degree were analyzed. The results indicated that the precision of the model is up to the first class, which is reliable and useful in practice. It can be used to reveal the development trend of the performances in various events of the women freestyle swimming. And the model was used to try to predict the performances in 2002. |
| Keywords: | women freestyle swimming national record grey model for prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |