| 国际油气价格动态关系对中国天然气定价机制改革的启示 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 席雯雯,姬强,范英.国际油气价格动态关系对中国天然气定价机制改革的启示[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,31(7):812-819. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 席雯雯 姬强 范英 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国科学技术大学管理学院 合肥 230026;中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院(筹)能源与环境政策研究中心 北京 100190,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院(筹)能源与环境政策研究中心 北京 100190,北京航空航天大学经济管理学院 北京 100191 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（71133005、91546109、71203210） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 文章从国际视角量化分析了国际天然气价格与石油价格之间的动态关系,并针对我国当前的天然气价格改革现状,对我国天然气市场发展和定价机制的改革方向提出了政策建议。研究发现,页岩气革命导致了当前国际油气价格呈现"分离"态势,这也是天然气市场化的必然结果。然而,油气价格之间的弱联动性仍然存在,且在当前国际低能源价格的态势下,我国应抓住契机,进一步推动天然气价格的市场化改革。
|
| 关 键 词： | 国际油气价格动态关系 马尔可夫机制转换协整模型 天然气定价改革 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016/5/6 0:00:00 |
Policy Inspiration for China's Pricing Mechanism Reform from Dynamic Relationship of International Oil and Gas Price |
| |
| Xi Wenwen,Ji Qiang and Fan Ying.Policy Inspiration for China's Pricing Mechanism Reform from Dynamic Relationship of International Oil and Gas Price[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2016,31(7):812-819. |
| |
| Authors: | Xi Wenwen Ji Qiang and Fan Ying |
| |
| Institution: | College of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China;Institute of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China,Institute of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China and School of Economics & Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China |
| |
| Abstract: | As energy supply situation becomes tighter and the climate change problem becomes more urgent, many countries vigorously develop and utilize natural gas to ensure the safety of energy supply and reduce carbon emission. China''s natural gas demand has entered into a period of rapid growth, and the natural gas reform with the core of market-oriented pricing has become an important part of China''s energy strategic planning. At present, China''s natural gas price is linked to the alternative energy prices, which is facing a series of problems. The US natural gas market with highest level of marketization has also experienced price control period. In the process of deregulation and forming a competitive market, the evolution of the relationship between oil and gas prices could reflect the changes of natural gas pricing mechanism and its internal causes. According to the quantitative analysis of the relationship between oil and gas prices in North America, we could have a better understanding of the laws of international natural gas prices, and offer inspirations for China''s natural gas pricing reform and market-oriented reform. In this study, with dynamic modeling thoughts, we research on the dynamic changing law between international oil prices and natural gas prices represented by the North America market. We take exogenous factors like speculation, inventory, and weather into consideration, and use state space model and Markov regime switching model to study on the comovement of oil prices and natural gas prices. The results indicate that after the shale gas revolution, the relationship between oil and gas prices of North America presents weakening gradually showing a trend of "decoupling". There is no long-term cointegration between oil prices and natural gas prices, while there is a dynamic equilibrium with the development of the market. Under the market-oriented pricing mechanism, natural gas market price is easily influenced by many factors like supply and demand, speculation, weather and so on. The international natural gas market is in a special stage, in which the countries with natural gas price controls are gradually carrying out deregulation. Meanwhile, the rapid promotion of LNG increases the liquidity of interregional natural gas trade, and the global natural gas market shows a trend of integration. Under this background, China should accelerate the process of marketization and explore the pricing mechanism which is suitable for the national situation. On the basis of our research results, we put forward several implications for future direction of China''s natural gas market, including:(1) track the price fluctuation laws of international crude oil market, and adjust the natural gas pricing in time; (2) establish natural gas futures, which helps form the price that reflects the changes of domestic supply and demand of natural gas; and (3) open the upstream market, introduce competition mechanisms, and establish a diversified supply system. |
| |
| Keywords: | dynamic relationship of international oil and gas price Markov regime switching cointegration model natural gas pricing reform |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《中国科学院院刊》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《中国科学院院刊》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
