| 基于智库双螺旋法的科技前瞻研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张凤,吴静,裴瑞敏.基于智库双螺旋法的科技前瞻研究[J].中国科学院院刊,2022,37(2):160-167. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张凤 吴静 裴瑞敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049;中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;1 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家高端智库建设试点专项,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院重大突破项目（E1X0771601） |
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| 摘 要： | 科技前瞻是科技发展战略研究的一种重要形式,是科技智库发挥决策服务支撑作用的重要体现。科技前瞻作为智库大规模研究问题,在研究过程中面临学科交叉性挑战、相互关联性挑战、政策实用性挑战、社会影响性挑战、创新性挑战、不确定性挑战等“六大挑战”,具有高度复杂性,亟待形成科学化、标准化研究范式,以保障高质量科技前瞻成效。文章在探讨科技前瞻国内外研究进展的基础上,提出智库双螺旋法对科技前瞻的思维指导、过程指导、操作指导,形成了规范化、体系化的科技前瞻研究思路和方法,以期为科技发展战略研究提供借鉴。
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| 关 键 词： | 科技前瞻 智库双螺旋法 战略研究 DIIS过程融合法 MIPS逻辑层次法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/1/30 0:00:00 |
Science and Technology Foresight Based on Think Tank Double Helix Methodology |
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| ZHANG Feng,WU Jing,PEI Ruimin.Science and Technology Foresight Based on Think Tank Double Helix Methodology[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2022,37(2):160-167. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Feng WU Jing PEI Ruimin |
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| Institution: | Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;1 Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China |
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| Abstract: | Science and technology (S&T) foresight is an important form of S&T development strategy study. Based on the needs of economic and social development and the law of S&T innovation and development, S&T foresight is a process of forming a consensus on the medium and long-term S&T development trends among experts in multiple disciplines and fields, so that to provide scientific basis and decision support for S&T planning and policy making. With the rapid development of technology over the world, carrying out S&T foresight is crucial for China to seize opportunities for technological innovation, seize the frontier and opportunities of technological revolution, realize selfreliance and self-improvement in S&T, and build into an S&T giant. However, as a large-scale think tank research project, S&T foresight faces systemic challenges and collaborative challenges from the organization of a large number of multidisciplinary and multi-field research teams. Meanwhile, in the research process of S&T foresight, it faces interdisciplinary challenges, interrelated challenges, practical policy challenges, social influential challenges, innovative challenges, and uncertain challenges. There is an urgent need to form a comprehensive and systematic research ideas and methodology for S&T foresight of think tank. To this end, this study analyzes the thinking guidance, process guidance, and operation guidance of the think tank double helix methodology for the S&T foresight. The thinking guidance of the double helix methodology to the S&T foresight is mainly reflected in the design of the overall work plan. Under the guidance of the double helix methodology, S&T foresight needs to grasp the foresight goals of S&T development from the national strategic needs, and comb the internal mechanism of S&T foresight based on historical data and current situation analysis; under the mechanism-impact-policy-solution (MIPS) architecture, through parallel relationship decomposition, serial relationship decomposition, and matrix relationship decomposition and other decomposition methods, the S&T foresight project can be decomposed into a number of independent sub-problems with inherent logical connections; focusing on the sub-problem research needs, a research team consist of multi-field expert with vertical hierarchical and horizontal cross-cutting relationship is formed, and a progressing schedule should be reached to form time coordination and research collaboration under the guidance of datainformation-intelligence-solution (DIIS). The process guidance and operation guidance of the double helix methodology for S&T foresight are embodied in the four stages of DIIS. Firstly, in the data collection stage of S&T foresight, it is necessary to scan and review the progress of S&T foresight issues over the world as well as selection criteria, to form a multi-dimensional data database. Secondly, in the stage of information disclosure, it is necessary to form the judgement on the current state of S&T development, future development vision, and selection criteria. Thirdly, in the stage of intelligence analysis, the key directions of S&T foresight can be comprehensively shaped through repeated iterations of objective data analysis and expert judgments. Finally, research reports and policy recommendation reports are produced to provide policymaking support for the S&T development. |
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| Keywords: | S&T foresight think tank double helix methodology strategy study data-information-intelligence-solution (DIIS) mechanismimpact-policy-solution (MIPS) |
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