| 对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 石耀霖,刘杰,张国民.对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,2000(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 石耀霖 刘杰 张国民 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学技术大学研究生院地学教学部!北京100039(石耀霖)，国家地震局分析预报中心!北京100036(刘杰，张国民) |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金! (4 97742 36 )，国家基础科学重点基金!资助项目 (G980 40 70 6 ) |
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| 摘 要： | 采用R评分方法 ,对中国地震局 1 990到 1 998年的年度地震预报进行了统计和评估 .随机猜测预报R为 0 ,完全准确预报R为 1 .我国 90年代的年度预报R评分平均为 0 .1 84.如果把地震局实际预报与选取最大背景概率地区预报相结合 ,可以使R评分提高到 0 .336 .统计表明 ,中国年度地震预报对 5级以上地震的预报水平还不高 ,特别是在人烟稀少、台站缺乏的高地震背景概率区 ,预报效果较低 ;但在人口密集、经济发达的重点监测地区 ,中国地震局年度预报高于随机预报 ,实际预报取得了一定效果 .
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预报 统计检验 中国 评估 |
The Evaluation of Chinese Annual Earthquake Prediction in the 90s |
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| Shi Yaolin.The Evaluation of Chinese Annual Earthquake Prediction in the 90s[J].Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2000(1). |
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| Authors: | Shi Yaolin |
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| Abstract: | China Seismological Bureau (CSB) has been carrying on routine annual earthquake prediction in China since 1975. In this study, we apply a scheme of R score to evaluate the disclosed annual predictions in the 90s. A completely random guess leads to an R score of 0 and a complete successful prediction has an R score of 1. The average R score of the annual prediction in China in the 90s is about 0.184, greater than 0. This score has to be compared with different strategies of random predictions because the background seismicity in China is different in different regions. The first strategy is to make chances of predictions at each location proportional to its background seismicity, which leads to an expected R score of 0.150. The CSB annual prediction is marginally higher than this value. The second strategy is predictions are made only at regions of highest background seismicity, the R score then can reach as high as 0.270,superior than the CSB prediction, but this kind of prediction is practical meaningless. A combination of actual prediction of CSB and regions of highest background seismicity can raise the R score to 0.336,superior than strategy 2. This study indicates that annual earthquake prediction in China is still in a very preliminary stage. CSB annual prediction is not better than random predictions at remote areas, but behaves better than random predictions in populated and economic important regions which are the main areas carefully monitored in Chinese earthquake prediction project. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake prediction statistical test China evaluation |
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